$50 down for reservation but how many will put up the other $250 to order

[jmason]

Just wondering what folks think the actual number of orders will be since the $250 pre-order down payment is more than the $50 reservation and not refundable. Out of the 150k+/- reservations what percentage do you think will carry through with the actual purchase?

 

[ScooterAsheville]

More interesting is another question. Will Slate reveal the number of order conversions after the 30 day window closes? I wagering not, but I hope to be surprised.

 

[slate808]

I will be paying the $250 pre-order payment on June 24 even though I’m in Hawai’i and Slate has no delivery plans outside the continental 48 states (for now). I don’t remember exactly when I first learned about Slate but it was well before their launch last year. At that point, I decided to set my calendar and I put in my $50 on the first day maybe even the first hour. I have a brother who lives on the mainland and I am thinking about having my Slate delivered to him and making a road trip to one of the west coast ports as a way to get my Slate sooner.

 

[Vehicle Nanny]

If they keep pricing for the base truck under $30k, then I'm in.

 

[EJensen]

For what it's worth, here's what Gemini has to say:


Estimating the exact conversion rate from a fully refundable $50 hand-raiser reservation to a non-refundable $300 preorder deposit is a classic hurdle for EV startups. Looking at industry precedents and the unique context surrounding Slate Auto's June 24 to July 24 window, a realistic estimate for the proportion of reservations that will convert to deposits is 15% to 25%.

Out of Slate's reported 160,000 reservation holders, this would translate to roughly 24,000 to 40,000 firm preorders.

The Reasoning Behind the Estimate
Several competing forces drive this percentage, balanced between strong consumer tailwinds and significant friction points:

1. The High Friction of "Skin in the Game" (The Drop-off)
Historically, ultra-low-barrier, fully refundable reservations (like a $50 or $100 fee) attract a massive amount of casual interest, internet hype, and "just in case" sign-ups.

• When Tesla transitioned Cybertruck or Model 3 reservations to firm orders, or when Ford moved F-150 Lightning hand-raisers to non-refundable deposits, the drop-off was steep.
• Upping the ante from a risk-free $50 to a hard, non-refundable $300 weeds out speculative buyers. A conversion rate of 20% is actually considered quite healthy for this type of transition in the automotive startup world.

2. The Pricing Shock Factor (The June 24 Reveal)
Slate is opening the deposit window on the exact same day they finally reveal the official base price. This introduces two psychological hurdles:

• The Tax Credit Loss: Slate originally teased a sub-$20,000 price tag, but that relied on the $7,500 federal EV tax credit which was recently eliminated. While Slate still targets the "mid-$20,000 range," the sudden loss of a major incentive will inevitably give budget-conscious buyers pause.
• Buying Blind-ish: Customers are being asked to lock in non-refundable cash before most have ever seen the vehicle in person or read real-world driving reviews.

3. Why it Won't Tank Completely (The Tailwinds)
Despite the friction, a 15%–25% conversion is highly achievable due to several factors:

• High Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Demand: Gas price volatility has kept consumer interest in EVs incredibly high. A bare-bones, utility-focused truck in the mid-$20,000s is a massive market anomaly that doesn't currently exist anywhere else in the U.S.
• The "Do Nothing" Out: Slate’s unique setup allows reservation holders who aren't ready to commit to simply defer their reservation to a later delivery window rather than canceling outright. This means the immediate 30-day window will capture only the highly enthusiastic, "must-have-it-first" cohort, while a chunk of the remaining 75%+ will wait and see.
• Institutional Backing: Strong institutional momentum—like heavy backing from Jeff Bezos and the recent strategic dealer/service moves with Carvana and RepairPal—signals to buyers that Slate is highly unlikely to go under before deliveries start in late 2026/early 2027. This lowers the perceived risk of handing over non-refundable cash.

Conclusion
Because the entry barrier was so low ($50), expecting anything north of a 30% immediate conversion would be overly optimistic for a new EV manufacturer. However, the sheer hunger for an affordable, no-frills electric pickup will likely secure a solid 15% to 25% baseline of hardcore buyers during this initial 30-day window.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

For what it's worth, here's what Gemini has to say:

That's not what I heard:

The Slate EV launch had promise—sleek lines, whisper-quiet motor, a name that sounded like a moody poet. Marketing promised a conversion rate that would make spreadsheets weep. But reality: reservations turned into a performance art piece. First, a surge of eager early adopters reserved with the fervor of people hoarding artisanal sourdough. Then the conversion funnel developed stage fright. Emails asking for paperwork were met with readers thinking “paperwork” meant origami. One customer converted after mistaking the final payment page for a choose-your-own-adventure—selected “Return to Menu” and somehow bought a tow package. Another only converted when they realized “Slate” wasn’t a new streaming service. The analytics team held a vigil; the conversion rate rose by 0.03%—enough to celebrate with tiny champagne flutes. Slate learned a lesson: great cars convert better when humans remember where they saved their ID and don’t treat checkout like a cryptic escape room.

 

[GaRailroader]

I think it is completely dependent on the price. If the 6/24 price is $19,999 then I’d bet they are going to convert a lot of reservations to pre-orders. If it is $29,999 the the conversion late will be way lower.

 

[kvermeer]

For what it's worth, here's what Gemini has to say:

It's worth less than nothing, it's a waste of space and a net negative in the conversation. Please never dump a thread into an LLM and post the response here, that is rude.

Anyone who wants to know what an LLM "thinks" can do so on their own time, the rest of us want to hear what other humans think.

Personally, I anticipate a poor conversion rate - on the order of 10% - that would've been much better if the $7500 EV credit had been available. If they manage insanely great pricing with $23k base, $3k extra range, and $4k SUV kit it'll do better, if it's $27,499 it'll do more poorly.

 

[E90400K]

I didn't read the AI gibberish.

What I see as a significant issue is availability of test drives and even just look-see events thus far. Slate is now asking for a non-refundable $300 order commitment with no ability for a prospective buyer to get a look at a production unit let alone drive it. There is always a big gap between prototype and production.

 

[AKrietzer]

I think it is going to matter the most if they can let us see and drive one, and final price. The $7,500 credit is old news now, so that only effects people that still think they are going to be able to buy one for less than 20k. They won't be buying anyway. Hopefully Slate will at least start a limited run mainly for test drives. I would drive the 150 miles or so needed to see and drive one at a large city before I put down the extra $250.

 

[jmason]

That's not what I heard:

Wow! GPT sounded like it was really enjoying some digital psychedelics!

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Wow! GPT sounded like it was really enjoying some digital psychedelics!

Not unlike some posts on this forum!

 

[sodamo]

Once prices are known 6/24 those that haven’t will start having to seriously look at what total cost will. For instance if my Blank Slate is $25k, that will be at least $29k to get it in my driveway. Sales tax, Destination fees, Registration, etc, all variable beyonf price of our truck, but in need of being addressed.

 

[turbobill]

For me it will depend on the final price, price of options, and delivery point/freight.

 

[KReyn]

Keep it under 30k and I think most early deposit holders would continue. The percentages ai comes up with; I’d like to think the human side of things is looking at a new spin on a classic tune with an open heart. Let the bots predict themselves into irrelevance.