AI Says, Self driving cars will make insurance rates for Human Drivers cost prohibitive within 10 years.

[Mackleandy]

Buy your last self driveable vehicle now it will be a lawn ornament in 2036. You can be sure that Insurers will deny coverage or raise the premiums so high that the average American will not be able to afford the liability insurance. Non-autonomous Vehicles will become unsellable.

Crash Rate Comparison
A major 2024 study comparing Waymo's "rider-only" fleet (over 7.1 million miles) to human benchmarks in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles found substantial safety improvements:

• Injury Rates: The rate of "any injury reported" was 0.6 incidents per million miles (IPMM) for the autonomous system, compared to 2.80 IPMM for humans—an 80% reduction (Waymo, 2024).
• Police-Reported Crashes: The autonomous rate was 2.1 IPMM, while the human benchmark was 4.68 IPMM, representing a 55% reduction (Waymo, 2024).

 

[ElectricShitbox]

🤦

 

[clofan]

 

[dragondroptv]

It may go the other route, if they are less accidents including major accidents the needs for higher insurance will go away. That is going to kill the profit for insurance companies. So my guess is that they will keep prices the same and just take the profit from the less accidents.

 

[KJRaven]

Self-driving cars will eventually improve overall road safety statistics. Currently, they are in their infancy, but within a few years, they will become a dominant mode of transportation. This will be especially true when "smart" self-driving cars can communicate, alerting each other to the presence of "dumb" non-self-driving vehicles, allowing for safer navigation.

However, there will always be edge cases requiring human drivers. Emergency response vehicles, for example, are likely to be among the last to be fully autonomous, though they could benefit from some level of current autonomy.

 

[Mackleandy]

It may go the other route, if they are less accidents including major accidents the needs for higher insurance will go away. That is going to kill the profit for insurance companies. So my guess is that they will keep prices the same and just take the profit from the less accidents.

I just don't see the insurance companies accepting the risk. You may be right, they are in it for the money. Much higher premiums for those that want to drive themselves.

 

[Mackleandy]

Self-driving cars will eventually improve overall road safety statistics. Currently, they are in their infancy, but within a few years, they will become a dominant mode of transportation. This will be especially true when "smart" self-driving cars can communicate, alerting each other to the presence of "dumb" non-self-driving vehicles, allowing for safer navigation.

However, there will always be edge cases requiring human drivers. Emergency response vehicles, for example, are likely to be among the last to be fully autonomous, though they could benefit from some level of current autonomy.

Yes, agreed

 

[beatle]

Self-driving cars will eventually improve overall road safety statistics. Currently, they are in their infancy, but within a few years, they will become a dominant mode of transportation. This will be especially true when "smart" self-driving cars can communicate, alerting each other to the presence of "dumb" non-self-driving vehicles, allowing for safer navigation.

However, there will always be edge cases requiring human drivers. Emergency response vehicles, for example, are likely to be among the last to be fully autonomous, though they could benefit from some level of current autonomy.

This reads like a post on a Tesla forum from 2018. Not saying there haven't been notable advances in ADAS, or that we'll never get there, but "within a few years" has been the horizon for well over half a dozen years.

 

[E90400K]

Self-driving cars will eventually improve overall road safety statistics. Currently, they are in their infancy, but within a few years, they will become a dominant mode of transportation. This will be especially true when "smart" self-driving cars can communicate, alerting each other to the presence of "dumb" non-self-driving vehicles, allowing for safer navigation.

However, there will always be edge cases requiring human drivers. Emergency response vehicles, for example, are likely to be among the last to be fully autonomous, though they could benefit from some level of current autonomy.

It'll never happen.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

I remember when "BEVs will never happen" was the dominant narrative. Oh wait, I'm on a BEV forum. Apparently filled with luddites who have no grasp of history or the accellerating rate of technological progress humanity has achieved.

Similar narratives: "Starlink is lunacy". "Reusing rockets is lunacy". "Replacing hearts is lunacy". Long list of lunatics achieving the impossible. And self-appointed geniuses taking cheap shots from the sidelines.

 

[Mackleandy]

I remember when "BEVs will never happen" was the dominant narrative. Oh wait, I'm on a BEV forum. Apparently filled with luddites who have no grasp of history or the accellerating rate of technological progress humanity has achieved.

Similar narratives: "Starlink is lunacy". "Reusing rockets is lunacy". "Replacing hearts is lunacy". Long list of lunatics achieving the impossible. And self-appointed geniuses taking cheap shots from the sidelines.

Amen, Digital cameras will never replace film...........

 

[KJRaven]

It'll never happen.

Honestly, it’s already happening faster than most people realize. Waymo is scaling like crazy—they're on track to hit 20 cities by the end of the year And if you’re in Texas, you’re already sharing the road with Aurora's driverless semi trucks moving freight daily between here and Phoenix or OKC.

These systems are logging tens of millions of real-world miles and billions more in simulation. I really think that by 2036, having a driver’s license will be a choice, not a necessity. We’ll still be able to drive if we want to, but for the average soul-crushing commute? Most people are going to let the tech handle it. It’s not a question of 'if' anymore, just a matter of when the insurance and legal side catches up to the tech.

 

[Oddballhero]

Your first mistake was "AI says" . . .

 

[Johnologue]

Generative AI is trained by people who are firm believers in generative AI.
And of course: By any chance were you asking Gemini about Waymo?
Though, every major AI company has some stake in promoting autonomous vehicles.

I do believe self-driving cars are a serious threat to people's privilege to freely use private vehicles. I do not believe it would truly be safer or better for society.

To quote my personal favorite AI scientist, Steve Grand:
For one thing, if we genuinely wanted to make transport safer and more efficient, we wouldn’t start from there. But that’s not really why people do it, of course. They have ulterior motives.

And that's (one reason) why, unlike most AI scientists, he has almost no income.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

I gotta say as a 70 year old not as sharp as I once was... I relish eyes-on self driving, which is on the road today for mapped roads. GM has 700 million miles now on UltraCruise with zero accidents when in self-driving mode. I'm happy to keep my eyes on the road, even when not legally needed.

Trust me. As a generation of us Boomers clings to our keys and lives in denial of what the mirror is telling us, all you younglings want us to be using self-driving cars. You really do.

Also, to be fair to my own generation. I also see all generations blasting down the roads rear-ending everyone in sight as they refuse to put down their phones. Not sure if grandpa or grandkid is more dangerous these days.