How much does Slate need to sell to be considered "successful"?

[Oddballhero]

I have seen a lot of posts saying the Slate will fail, and I know they are not trying to be the next F-150, so how many do they need to sell to be considered a success? Would they look at number of units sold, or combine that with revenue made from accessories?

 

[IanNubbit]

I have seen a lot of posts saying the Slate will fail, and I know they are not trying to be the next F-150, so how many do they need to sell to be considered a success? Would they look at number of units sold, or combine that with revenue made from accessories?

I think if we ask are they a success in 5 years and they are still selling trucks, they have succeeded. The short answer is if investors still give them money, they are doing fine

 

[Mac-Tyson]

I have seen a lot of posts saying the Slate will fail, and I know they are not trying to be the next F-150, so how many do they need to sell to be considered a success? Would they look at number of units sold, or combine that with revenue made from accessories?

Slates Production capacity is only 150,000 per year so it certainly won’t even come close to F-150 sales and certainly won’t even beat Tesla Model 3 or Y sales annually in the US. They aren’t selling the truck at a loss so whatever number they came up with for sales goals is going to be under 150,000 before accessory sales. If I had to guess I would say probably 100,000 annually once at full scale. Probably could be profitable with half of that if they make good profits on accessory sales.

 

[IanNubbit]

Slates Production capacity is only 150,000 per year so it certainly won’t even come close to F-150 sales and certainly won’t even beat Tesla Model 3 or Y sales annually in the US. They aren’t selling the truck at a loss so whatever number they came up with for sales goals is going to be under 150,000 before accessory sales. If I had to guess I would say probably 100,000 annually once at full scale. Probably could be profitable with half of that if they make good profits on accessory sales.

If they sell 50k units before the end of Q1 2027 I feel like is a MASSIVE win. If they sell more than 25k the are doing just fine

 

[Mac-Tyson]

If they sell 50k units before the end of Q1 2027 I feel like is a MASSIVE win. If they sell more than 25k the are doing just fine

To add some perspective for numbers though the Mach-E was the 4th best selling BEV in 2025 at 52K for the entire year and the 3rd best the Chevy Equinox EV for the entire year which was around $28K when the tax credit existed sold 58K in the country. So selling 50K units in a single quarter is a huge ask even counting the small sales they will get at the end of the year as they begin deliveries. They just need over 40K annual sales to be the best selling BEV Pickup Truck in the country.

 

[IanNubbit]

To add some perspective for numbers though the Mach-E was the 4th best selling BEV in 2025 at 52K for the entire year and the 3rd best the Chevy Equinox EV for the entire year which was around $28K when the tax credit existed sold 58K in the country. So selling 50K units in a single quarter is a huge ask even counting the small sales they will get at the end of the year as they begin deliveries. They just need over 40K annual sales to be the best selling BEV Pickup Truck in the country.

Didn’t have the numbers but this makes sense, just going off of 150k deserves so I expect atleast a decent push on the first few months of launch, obviously no where near 100k. But time will tell. There isn’t really anything like this out right now. If it is quickly successful though it will be good for buyers, non-buyers, and haters. People buying the thing that keeps being asked for (2 doors, cheap, easy to repair, de-contented) will force a shift in the industry for benefit of all.
With hearing thise nimbers, at that point 25k sales by the end of 2027 would seem like a success at that point in my opinion

 

[Mac-Tyson]

Didn’t have the numbers but this makes sense, just going off of 150k deserves so I expect atleast a decent push on the first few months of launch, obviously no where near 100k. But time will tell. There isn’t really anything like this out right now. If it is quickly successful though it will be good for buyers, non-buyers, and haters. People buying the thing that keeps being asked for (2 doors, cheap, easy to repair, de-contented) will force a shift in the industry for benefit of all.
With hearing thise nimbers, at that point 25k sales by the end of 2027 would seem like a success at that point in my opinion

I feel like for Slates big wins are the following if they can convert 1/2 of their 160,000 reservations into sales then they will likely make the top 3 of BEV sales in 2027. If they only convert 1/4 of their 160,000 reservations (40k) they will still be in the top 5 and possibly the best selling BEV Pickup Truck on the market at min. 25K they will still be a success probably being in the Top 10 but I don’t know if Slate will see only 25K sales as a success for the year. Maybe if all 25K are really into buying accessories.

Personally I think 25K could be a relative success simply because at that number you can start having slate really selling itself by people seeing it out and about.

 

[GaRailroader]

We don’t know how long the production ramp will take. In 2027 they may be production constrained and not demand constrained.

 

[Mac-Tyson]

We don’t know how long the production ramp will take. In 2027 they may be production constrained and not demand constrained.

This is a good point too and I’m sure fleet sales and early reservation holders will be prioritized.

 

[IanNubbit]

We don’t know how long the production ramp will take. In 2027 they may be production constrained and not demand constrained.

I really think they won’t be significantly if at all production constrained, so much effort was out into ease if production, I fully expect they only become constrained by suppliers if at all. Obviously that may be optimistic, but it seems they put alot of work into making sure that is not an issue

 

[KevinRS]

I really think they won’t be significantly if at all production constrained, so much effort was out into ease if production, I fully expect they only become constrained by suppliers if at all. Obviously that may be optimistic, but it seems they put alot of work into making sure that is not an issue

Yeah, I think once they get through test builds and certification, demo, test drive builds and start making production trucks for sale they should be able to ramp up relatively quickly. Constraints will be supply of parts, and training multiple shifts of workers.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

The short answer to the OP's question is that nobody on this forum has a clue. Because we don't have access to Slate's internal cost figures. It's all fanboy or skeptic narratives invented out of thin air. We don't know their costs per unit. We don't know their overhead. We don't know how the public will react to the idea of Repair Pal for service. We don't know A through Z. Each of us just invents A through Z and then spins a narrative that makes us feel good.

Oh wait, the OP didn't ask if Slate will be a success. Just if "they will be considered a success". Well, by who?

• Fanboys will consider Slate a success if they ship a single Slate to said fanboy.
• Investors will consider Slate a success if Slate delivers a feasible investor narrative that they will be profitable at some future date. Because investors are in the business of taking (sometimes stupid, sometimes brilliant) risks.
• Auto journalists will consider Slate a success if they deliver a compelling vehicle.

Slate might be considered a success and go out of business. And Slate might be considered a failure and stay in business. We just gonna have to wait and see.

This topic makes me wonder if the prediction markets have a Slate wager?