Lynx
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I've spent a lot of time recently thinking about which battery option I should get, and that has led me down a rabbit hole of analyzing worst-case scenarios and thinking about what are my most realistic needs day-to-day. For a little bit of fun, I've gone ahead and drafted some worst-case scenario range estimates (these are just my own rough estimates) and I've included my considerations below. I'm interested to hear what everyone thinks about theses estimates, are these probably accurate or inaccurate? and what other further considerations am I missing? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts on this!
For my hypothetical worst-case scenario thought experiment, let's include the following factors:
- Battery Aging (reduced maximum capacity over time)
- Healthy Battery Charging Habits (keeping the state-of-charge most of the time between 80% and 20% to reduce battery aging)
- Winter/Bad Weather Conditions (assume higher energy usage for battery management system and cabin heater)
- Possible SUV Kit and Possible Cargo/Passengers (more weight)
Battery Aging
As a broad generalization, let's assume 8% loss of battery capacity due to battery aging over the course of a few years (I'll leave it up to your interpretation how long 'a few years' is to keep this simple). I'm just choosing 8% for this hypothetical but we could assume less or more battery degradation if needed.
Healthy Battery Charging Habits
Let's assume you don't want to regularly discharge the battery all the way, in order to preserve your battery and reduce aging. You also don't want to regularly charge it up passed 80% for the same reason. If you're aiming to not charge above 80% and not drive below 20% then you're looking at ~60% of the battery's full capacity as actual usable range day-to-day excluding occasional long trips. If you want to take extra care of your battery you may not even want to let your charge get lower then 30-40%, but for this hypothetical I'll just assume a 60% spread (could be 80-20%, or 85-25%, etc...)
Winter/Bad Weather Conditions
For this hypothetical, I'll pull an estimate from another member on a different thread: -40mi for every 100mi of range on a really cold winter day (-40% range). As a disclaimer I have no idea the accuracy of this estimate, so I'll just let you interpret exactly how cold 'a cold day' is, and I'll note that Slate has said that on their initial vehicle they will use an energy-intensive resistor heater (cheaper for them) as opposed to a more energy efficient heat pump (more expensive part).
SUV Kit / Cargo / Passengers
This is perhaps the hardest factor to generalize/standardize for, simply because it will vary from person to person for each of our subjective day-to-day needs. Bearing this in mind, I will do initial estimates based on the blank Slate with no add-ons, no cargo, and just you the driver. After initial estimates I'll leave it up to you to subtract any additional range based on your plans for add-ons, cargo, and passengers.
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Worst-Case Scenario Estimates for Range:
Extended Range Battery, Blank Slate:
240 mi = Total battery range from 100% to 0%
220 mi = Max range assuming 8% loss with battery age (19.2 miles say 20) [-20 mi]
132 mi = Max range if you keep the battery state-of-charge (SOC) between 80% and 20% [-88 mi]
80 mi = Max range assuming cold battery and you're blasting the heat on a cold winter day. [-52 mi per 132mi (-40%)]
Standard Battery, Blank Slate:
150 mi = Total battery range from 100% to 0%
138 mi = Max range assuming 8% loss with battery age [-12 mi]
82 mi = Max range if you keep the battery state-of-charge (SOC) between 80% and 20% [-56 mi]
50 mi = Max range assuming cold battery and you're blasting the heat on a cold winter day. [-32 mi per 80mi (-40%)]
This leaves the worst-case scenario range for the base truck with no modifications or extra weight as:
Extended battery: 80 mi
Standard battery: 50 mi
BONUS: Let's say you have the SUV/Fastback kit installed (more weight) you might be looking at even shorter range. Also if you are hauling anything of significant weight, either cargo or more passengers, you would see even further range loss. Assuming you have SUV kit and 3 passengers + you the driver and possibly some light cargo, we could take off another ~10-20 mi from each and assume worst case range in that case would be ~65 mi and ~35 mi respectively.
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In either worst-case scenario on a winter day, the extended range should definitely still be enough for most people day-to-day, and for the standard range maybe you keep your battery SOC between 15% and 85% in the winter to just give you a slight range boost without significantly increasing your battery aging. In my case however, I happen to have a 50 mile commute to my job (thank you job market conditions right now) and a 50mi commute back to home every day, not including any errands. So in my situation, I would need at the very least 100mi of range bare minimum but 120-140 mi to not feel any range anxiety. So in my case, I'd either have to find a charger near my job and charge while I work or I'd have to take the hit to my battery aging/life long-term and just use it fully charged in the winters.
Anyways, for anyone whose made it this far through my rambling assumptions, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this, as well as your own range needs and estimates!
For my hypothetical worst-case scenario thought experiment, let's include the following factors:
- Battery Aging (reduced maximum capacity over time)
- Healthy Battery Charging Habits (keeping the state-of-charge most of the time between 80% and 20% to reduce battery aging)
- Winter/Bad Weather Conditions (assume higher energy usage for battery management system and cabin heater)
- Possible SUV Kit and Possible Cargo/Passengers (more weight)
Battery Aging
As a broad generalization, let's assume 8% loss of battery capacity due to battery aging over the course of a few years (I'll leave it up to your interpretation how long 'a few years' is to keep this simple). I'm just choosing 8% for this hypothetical but we could assume less or more battery degradation if needed.
Healthy Battery Charging Habits
Let's assume you don't want to regularly discharge the battery all the way, in order to preserve your battery and reduce aging. You also don't want to regularly charge it up passed 80% for the same reason. If you're aiming to not charge above 80% and not drive below 20% then you're looking at ~60% of the battery's full capacity as actual usable range day-to-day excluding occasional long trips. If you want to take extra care of your battery you may not even want to let your charge get lower then 30-40%, but for this hypothetical I'll just assume a 60% spread (could be 80-20%, or 85-25%, etc...)
Winter/Bad Weather Conditions
For this hypothetical, I'll pull an estimate from another member on a different thread: -40mi for every 100mi of range on a really cold winter day (-40% range). As a disclaimer I have no idea the accuracy of this estimate, so I'll just let you interpret exactly how cold 'a cold day' is, and I'll note that Slate has said that on their initial vehicle they will use an energy-intensive resistor heater (cheaper for them) as opposed to a more energy efficient heat pump (more expensive part).
SUV Kit / Cargo / Passengers
This is perhaps the hardest factor to generalize/standardize for, simply because it will vary from person to person for each of our subjective day-to-day needs. Bearing this in mind, I will do initial estimates based on the blank Slate with no add-ons, no cargo, and just you the driver. After initial estimates I'll leave it up to you to subtract any additional range based on your plans for add-ons, cargo, and passengers.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Worst-Case Scenario Estimates for Range:
Extended Range Battery, Blank Slate:
240 mi = Total battery range from 100% to 0%
220 mi = Max range assuming 8% loss with battery age (19.2 miles say 20) [-20 mi]
132 mi = Max range if you keep the battery state-of-charge (SOC) between 80% and 20% [-88 mi]
80 mi = Max range assuming cold battery and you're blasting the heat on a cold winter day. [-52 mi per 132mi (-40%)]
Standard Battery, Blank Slate:
150 mi = Total battery range from 100% to 0%
138 mi = Max range assuming 8% loss with battery age [-12 mi]
82 mi = Max range if you keep the battery state-of-charge (SOC) between 80% and 20% [-56 mi]
50 mi = Max range assuming cold battery and you're blasting the heat on a cold winter day. [-32 mi per 80mi (-40%)]
This leaves the worst-case scenario range for the base truck with no modifications or extra weight as:
Extended battery: 80 mi
Standard battery: 50 mi
BONUS: Let's say you have the SUV/Fastback kit installed (more weight) you might be looking at even shorter range. Also if you are hauling anything of significant weight, either cargo or more passengers, you would see even further range loss. Assuming you have SUV kit and 3 passengers + you the driver and possibly some light cargo, we could take off another ~10-20 mi from each and assume worst case range in that case would be ~65 mi and ~35 mi respectively.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In either worst-case scenario on a winter day, the extended range should definitely still be enough for most people day-to-day, and for the standard range maybe you keep your battery SOC between 15% and 85% in the winter to just give you a slight range boost without significantly increasing your battery aging. In my case however, I happen to have a 50 mile commute to my job (thank you job market conditions right now) and a 50mi commute back to home every day, not including any errands. So in my situation, I would need at the very least 100mi of range bare minimum but 120-140 mi to not feel any range anxiety. So in my case, I'd either have to find a charger near my job and charge while I work or I'd have to take the hit to my battery aging/life long-term and just use it fully charged in the winters.
Anyways, for anyone whose made it this far through my rambling assumptions, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this, as well as your own range needs and estimates!
