Speculation: who should buy Slate Inc?

[TPL]

The hypothetical scenario: It's 2029 and EVs are taking over the auto market even in the US. A new administration ends tariffs and foreign models are about to start flooding in, and domestic manufacturers are all caught flat-footed. ICE sales plummet and EVs are all selling out; dealer markups are through the roof.

Then there's Slate. After some initial hiccups they're now maxing out production at 100k/year, still sticking to their $25k price point for the base model (thanks to advances in cheaper batteries), and they're still privately held by investors who want their big payday. Time to sell! But to who?

Who would you be fine seeing acquire Slate, and whose purchase offer would you run screaming from?

Maybe going public is the best?

 

[GaRailroader]

My hope is IPO in their future after ramping production. I would worry if they got bought that they would lose their identify behind whoever buys them.

Saturn didn't start out independent but GM gave them more independence in the beginning until at the end the Saturn Vue was a rebadged Equinox and I think Saturn had a version of the Pontiac Solstice. Saturn morphed in to another GM product.

 

[BlackFlagBop]

... I think Saturn had a version of the Pontiac Solstice. Saturn morphed in to another GM product.

I believe it was called the Sky

 

[GrizzlysGhost]

In 2029, the Resistance will have prevailed over Skynet, so I can see Slate as being a key contributor to the rebuilding efforts (having never been linked to Skynet IAW their core business model). I can see them remaining independent as one of the only remaining automobile manufacturers unaffected by the War Against The Machines. 🤓

 

[BlackFlagBop]

In 2029, the Resistance will have prevailed over Skynet, so I can see Slate as being a key contributor to the rebuilding efforts (having never been linked to Skynet IAW their core business model). I can see them remaining independent as one of the only remaining automobile manufacturers unaffected by the War Against The Machines. 🤓

I for one welcome our robot overlords

 

[ScooterAsheville]

Before answering"who", we'd need to answer "what" and "why".

So what does Slate have that would be of value to an existing OEM (the "why")?

• Intellectual property? Zero. Zip. Nothing. Slate is highly conventional. They have invented nothing. Not bolt-on plastic body panels. Not the concept of selling a stripper. These failed ideas date back to the last century.
• Desirable manufacturing sites? Zero. Zip. Nothing. A single converted printing plant without a large press and without a paint shop. Zero appeal to any OEM.
• Amazing supplier relationships? Zero. Zip. Nothing.
• High margins? Zero. Zip. Nothing. Slate is a bottom-feeding, entry-level stripper. These are always low margin.
• A genius low-cost production plan? Nope. That's a BS Slate narrative. Several OEMs, especially the Japanese, already have lines that build with minimal options to improve quality metrics. The actual trend in the industry in 2026 is highly flexible lines that can build multiple models in real time. And the genius, low cost production plant? That would be the new Ford plant. Or the Kia "Meta" plant. Not Slate.
• A narrative? Yea, actually. Slate has a cool narrative (affordable, American cars, built in America, for Americans). It maybe actually have traction and generate sales. TBD, but definitely in the realm of the possible.
• A new customer set? Yea, actually. Slate's whole mantra is serving a market whitespace the OEMs have ignored. OTOH, automakers hate "not invented here". Any major OEM could easily offer a low cost small truck or other entry vehicles by 2029. Odds are, most OEMs have read the economic tea leaves and already have lower cost programs in progress now.
• The workforce? Nope. Soon as Slate is purchased by a major OEM the unions will target the Slate plant and vastly increase labor costs.

Now to the who?

• An OEM with several billion to spend that wants to buy a low margin stripper to add to their lineup. This is a tough one, (1) as the OEMs are swimming in BEV losses right now to the tune of tens of billions each. Hundreds of billions if you add them all up. And (2) as it's a poor return on precious and hard-to-obtain capital to buy a low margin business when you can invest in higher margin products.
• An OEM that doesn't mind the hassle of integrating a completely different company culture into theirs. Mergers are famously prone to failure in the auto industry. Ask Stellantis how that is going.
• OTOH, I find the narrative that Amazon or some other fleet entity might adsorb Slate intriguing. Except that these large firms aren't in the auto industry. They generally lease or outsource fleets.

So Slate being purchased in 2029? Could happen. Aliens could land on the White House lawn next week too.

Slate doing an IPO? IF Slate is a hit. IF Slate makes money. IF Slate has a narrative that appeals to the public markets - yea, an IPO could happen. An IPO is usually the standard step by which the venture capitalists get the profits they want. They don't want a low profit auto company. They want the large payday that comes from a bunch of retail fools (that's us) overpaying in an IPO frenzy.

PS: It's time to drive a nail into this delusional fantasy that BEV incentives are going to return. That ship has sailed. It ain't coming back to harbor. Ever.

 

[tubes]

I think if it is bought by any of the big guys, it's dead in 10 years.

The Saturn analogy is good. GM ultimately killed Saturn because the big cheeses at GM couldn't stand the fact that people who were GM loyal were buying a Saturn instead of a Chevy. Never underestimate the power of the C-suite bean counters.

If Honda, Toyota or Mazda bought them, they'd worry about cannibalizing their small car business, which is successful right now and the only option left.

If GM, Ford or Stellantis bought them, they'd be pissed at the profit per unit and press to enshitification.

Maybe Subaru?

Not Nissan, please god no.

 

[GrizzlysGhost]

In a surprise move, Datsun will purchase Slate, energizing the revival of this once-great auto giant.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

"He who shall not be named" has made it his thing to buy stakes in companies he likes (10% of Intel, etc) with our tax money. Maybe that loose cannon will buy a stake in Slate on behalf of the taxpayers.

Now that's me being sarcastic. But you know what, it makes sense at some level. It's a great narrative: "Our government is supporting a built-in-the-USA company struggling against the evil incumbents and Chinese predators."

That might actually have traction.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

>> I think if it is bought by any of the big guys, it's dead in 10 years.

I'd vote for two years. But I'd also make a point of wearing a sign that says "Me Big Dummy. Listen at own risk".

 

[EJensen]

Are there companies who make vehicles that are focused on fleet sales instead of consumer? Right from the beginning, I have assumed that fleet sales would make up a significant part of Slate sales. If you have a small business with a couple of vehicles that your techs and sales folks drive to get to customer/construction sites, the Slate seems to check a lot of boxes.

Are there existing companies that focus on that market?

 

[Johnologue]

I worry there's no answer to this question that isn't horrible for Slate, the people working there, and anyone currently interested in the truck itself.

 

[AeroWolf]

Most existing American vehicle brands would likely buy it, and then effectively cancel it in favor of their own existing vehicles and financial strategies.

Google, or Apple, would be too interested in turning the Slate into a connected Technology vehicle (ChromeCar/iTruck)

I think a major outdoor power tools maker would actually be best company, to keep the Slate in its general form and technology approach. Imagine a parent of company of a popular electric tool brand like Ego, Ryobi, or Worx taking the Slate brand over. To sell it like it is power tool, more than a typical vehicle

 

[knob]

Scooter's got it, I don't see a conventional automaker buying it. Their current EV efforts would have to fail customers spectacularly.

Outsiders or weirdos? Yes.

2029's a little early for Rivian to be profitable, but there's a great way for them to expand without diluting their excellent brand. Only efficiency would likely be battery supplies given Slate's lack of need for extensive software. Hard to see more different approaches to EV design. Also, if you do direct sales, no efficiency in a dealer network.

Auto sales outsiders (Carvana, Amazon) ... Carvana could do it, but a barebones pickup doesn't address a new market since they sell used. Amazon would probably see better margins sticking to their current dealer-supported new auto sales.

Foreign entrants to the US market - Chinese companies could improve a lot on Slate's manufacturing efficiency, but if they had an opening to manufacture in the US, I don't think they'd take it given the low enthusiasm for EVs compared to the latin American market. VW did something similar with the Scout, by going direct sales.

A US supplier that wants to expand. So many conventional suppliers in Slate's vendor roster, could any one of them be big enough to want to go it on their own? That's more or less how we got some of the Chinese EVs.

 

[tubes]

I think a major outdoor power tools maker would actually be best company, to keep the Slate in its general form and technology approach. Imagine a parent of company of a popular electric tool brand like Ego, Ryobi, or Worx taking the Slate brand over. To sell it like it is power tool, more than a typical vehicle

Interesting thought. Of course those brands are all owned by Chinese conglomerates. However, they do give some autonomy to their North American operations.

Fun fact: Ryobi and Milwaukee are both owned by TTI and you'll see Milwaukee reps at Home Depot messing around with the Ryobi stuff. But they try to keep it a low profile because the pros love Milwaukee and hate on Ryobi. To be fair, the design of most tools is different, but I'm sensing a slow trend to TTI sharing between the brands.