Predictable Pessimistic Pundit Prognostication

[AZFox]

This video, from a few days ago, is by a couple of analysts I'm not familiar with. These guys claim there's no market demand in the United States for small trucks, and Tesla shouldn't make one. Part of their discussion is about the Slate.

They're wrong, of course, about consumer demand for small pickups and SUVs.

SUVs and pickups didn't get bigger and grow extra doors because of market demand. Instead, the market was manipulated to make them unavailable.

Small pickups (at first, later around 1989 SUVs too) have been held out of reach from the American consumer because CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards essentially legislated those smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles out out of production.

Neither Slate Automotive the company nor the Blank Slate vehicle seems to fit into the current auto industry's paradigm.

Um, my advice, by the way, if you're looking to buy a slate and you really want the company to succeed, buy some options. Get some options packages on it. The markup in he options is far greater than the markup in the vehicle, which especially at their low low price is probably going to be negative.
[...]
I'm concerned that at that price they're just going to bleed money.
[...]
Yeah. So once again, I I just I can't get over the fact I mean, maybe the next generation or the current generation of people that are buying trucks don't care what they look like. Um, but to me, the fact that they hired Crayola uh and put on these colors really tells me what it looks like to me, which is a toy.
[...]
Okay. Yeah, it could have this range or that range. It could have this carrying capacity or that carrying capacity. Most people that are buying trucks in the United States that create the truck market have never even carried their snowshoes in the [...] back in the they're they're using it as a as a lifestyle statement or a I'm really uh big "I'm a really big dude" [statement].
[...]
"I think there's other vehicles that would come ahead of that smaller truck. Again, you taught me about the potential for selling [small trucks], you know, in other countries, but in the United States, small trucks are just not it.​

​

I agree. And the good news is we'll have Slate to instruct and inform us. We'll have Telo and hopefully others uh to test those waters and find out.​

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[Freyar]

Starting to think car and truck people don't even consider the privacy angle and have gotten so used to Silicon Valley era behavior that they don't see it as a negative value.

I also don't particularly like the Crayola partnership, as it sends a weird message and seems to do as mentioned in the transcript (imply it's a toy), but the benefit is I don't have to buy it. People have put in worse on their trucks and cars before.

"Buy options" is bold advice for people that need a cheap long-life transportation.

 

[KevinRS]

The not liking how it looks, and it looks like a "toy"

Is that a size thing? All trucks need to look like they are built to tow a big 5th wheel RV that you need a CDL for?
That was something we noticed carpooling last week and happened to go past a Ford dealer. "are those F-150s or something bigger?" they were F-150s, and you couldn't tell by size of the front end the difference between them and the F-350s

 

[Freyar]

The not liking how it looks, and it looks like a "toy"

Is that a size thing? All trucks need to look like they are built to tow a big 5th wheel RV that you need a CDL for?
That was something we noticed carpooling last week and happened to go past a Ford dealer. "are those F-150s or something bigger?" they were F-150s, and you couldn't tell by size of the front end the difference between them and the F-350s

I think it's people looking at it as a truck with modern truck expectations and body design, rather than looking at it for what it is. A cheap entry point into EVs. (Because $35k doesn't feel cheap to me..) For the past ten years, I think truck and my mind paints a Silverado or Ford and those things are huge big-ass-trucks (or B.A.T.(s) as my family refers to them.)

A lot of these pessimistic views seem to be from people who are so heavily ingrained on the market that they lost sight of what it's like to not be a car or truck person, not be able to reasonably buy a $40k-$80k vehicle, and don't seem to understand that for a lot of people "good enough" is good enough.

 

[jonboy108]

It’s a weird American thing to have cars and trucks grow every year, except for 1977 when GM reset the sizes of their full size sedans. My 1989 Plymouth Voyager minivan was one inch longer than a Slate is. The current production version- Chrysler Pacifica is 30 inches longer. I suspect the buying public has been convinced that bigger = worth more. Options also add to price- and profit. Even American car manufacturers have more reasonably sized vehicles that they produce for overseas markets. (Ford Transit Connect etc) It’s been impossible to buy a “stripper” for years- in the old days, Chevy had the Biscayne, Ford had the Custom, which were often shipped without radios even (NO AM? The horror!) All the Detroit fascination with big, highly optioned cars (and their profitability) gave VW Toyota and others the entry into the US market. Now they have even gotten bigger…. I really think there’s a market for sensible cars that is untapped. Again.

 

[Doctors Do Little]

This video, from a few days ago, is by a couple of analysts I'm not familiar with. These guys claim there's no market demand in the United States for small trucks, and Tesla shouldn't make one. Part of their discussion is about the Slate.

They're wrong, of course, about consumer demand for small pickups and SUVs.

SUVs and pickups didn't get bigger and grow extra doors because of market demand. Instead, the market was manipulated to make them unavailable.

Small pickups (at first, later around 1989 SUVs too) have been held out of reach from the American consumer because CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards essentially legislated those smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles out out of production.

Neither Slate Automotive the company nor the Blank Slate vehicle seems to fit into the current auto industry's paradigm.

Um, my advice, by the way, if you're looking to buy a slate and you really want the company to succeed, buy some options. Get some options packages on it. The markup in he options is far greater than the markup in the vehicle, which especially at their low low price is probably going to be negative.
[...]
I'm concerned that at that price they're just going to bleed money.
[...]
Yeah. So once again, I I just I can't get over the fact I mean, maybe the next generation or the current generation of people that are buying trucks don't care what they look like. Um, but to me, the fact that they hired Crayola uh and put on these colors really tells me what it looks like to me, which is a toy.
[...]
Okay. Yeah, it could have this range or that range. It could have this carrying capacity or that carrying capacity. Most people that are buying trucks in the United States that create the truck market have never even carried their snowshoes in the [...] back in the they're they're using it as a as a lifestyle statement or a I'm really uh big "I'm a really big dude" [statement].
[...]
"I think there's other vehicles that would come ahead of that smaller truck. Again, you taught me about the potential for selling [small trucks], you know, in other countries, but in the United States, small trucks are just not it.​

​

I agree. And the good news is we'll have Slate to instruct and inform us. We'll have Telo and hopefully others uh to test those waters and find out.​

Channel has 80.5K subscribers
Vido currently has 286 Comments

Thanks for summarizing so I don’t click through and support them!

 

[tubes]

It’s a weird American thing to have cars and trucks grow every year, except for 1977 when GM reset the sizes of their full size sedans. My 1989 Plymouth Voyager minivan was one inch longer than a Slate is. The current production version- Chrysler Pacifica is 30 inches longer. I suspect the buying public has been convinced that bigger = worth more. Options also add to price- and profit. Even American car manufacturers have more reasonably sized vehicles that they produce for overseas markets. (Ford Transit Connect etc) It’s been impossible to buy a “stripper” for years- in the old days, Chevy had the Biscayne, Ford had the Custom, which were often shipped without radios even (NO AM? The horror!) All the Detroit fascination with big, highly optioned cars (and their profitability) gave VW Toyota and others the entry into the US market. Now they have even gotten bigger…. I really think there’s a market for sensible cars that is untapped. Again.

I'm pro America, but totally agree with your sentiment. It is weird. Weird is a good word. We've been frogs boiling in water not noticing this. Weird, and very American. The same is happening to our homes, but NOT to our garage doors*. Weird. Big home, narrow garage door, increasingly wide vehicles.

There HAS to be a demand to get back to sensibly sized vehicles. This is a huge reason why the wife and I are 16 and 17 years into our vehicles. The monsters just don't appeal to us.

* - We had a friend move into a brand new home and their Toyota would not fit in the garage doors unless they folded them. They first bought a new car with automatic folding mirrors. Then they got so peeved by this, they ended up moving after only 3 years to a different house. Meanwhile, our 1980 home with modest square footage has beautifully normal garage doors. Builders are building these massive homes on tiny lots, so apparently the architectural solution is to squeeze the garage doors. It has all become ridiculous.

 

[Doctors Do Little]

It’s a weird American thing to have cars and trucks grow every year, except for 1977 when GM reset the sizes of their full size sedans. My 1989 Plymouth Voyager minivan was one inch longer than a Slate is. The current production version- Chrysler Pacifica is 30 inches longer. I suspect the buying public has been convinced that bigger = worth more. Options also add to price- and profit. Even American car manufacturers have more reasonably sized vehicles that they produce for overseas markets. (Ford Transit Connect etc) It’s been impossible to buy a “stripper” for years- in the old days, Chevy had the Biscayne, Ford had the Custom, which were often shipped without radios even (NO AM? The horror!) All the Detroit fascination with big, highly optioned cars (and their profitability) gave VW Toyota and others the entry into the US market. Now they have even gotten bigger…. I really think there’s a market for sensible cars that is untapped. Again.

There is some interesting math psychology at play. In the original “Millionaire Next Door” book, the author was surprised that the most popular vehicle of the quiet millionaire was an F150, which he then deduced was that the said millionaire was essentially getting the best pound/$ ratio!

Fast forward 20+ years and all of my bougie neighbors have one huge truck in each driveway- has nothing to do with any practical use case. They are always spotless and I’m the only one in the hood with a utility trailer that gets use (bc of my current truckless situation). It’s all glam.

They don’t even bother with a rational argument about being the victor in any motor vehicle accident scenarios…it’s just ego.

So, I’m looking forward to trollin the hood in my plastic toy truck and yes, doing more truck things than they will combined…

 

[tubes]

When I'm working with my volunteers at a site, they'll frequently roll up in one of these. Since I don't have a truck, I'll ask if they can run to the Home Depot and get some bags of cement or something. Many times they'll just say no, for fear of dirtying them up. Other times, the really good guys will grimace and bear it for the good of the volunteer construction. I just silently shake my head thinking why do they even have a truck?

 

[Susan]

These guys sure had opinions, if not facts.

The guest (somebody named Randy Kirk) has written three fawning books about Elon Musk - Elon Musk: Mission, Elon Musk: Method, Elon Musk: Magic. So of course he wasn't going to understand Slate. His comment about the Slate looking like a toy was pretty ironic, since I think the Cybertruck looks like something created by the 6 year old who did Axe Cop.

Brian White, the host, does an awful lot of videos about Tesla. It's pretty clear he doesn't get Slate either.

Some of the comments were good. Though most were about Tesla.

 

[Doctors Do Little]

These guys sure had opinions, if not facts.

The guest (somebody named Randy Kirk) has written three fawning books about Elon Musk - Elon Musk: Mission, Elon Musk: Method, Elon Musk: Magic. So of course he wasn't going to understand Slate.

Brian, the host, does an awful lot of videos about Tesla. It's pretty clear he doesn't get Slate either.

Some of the comments were good. Though most were about Tesla.

So when is Tesla gonna chop their Model Y into a truck?!?!

 

[sodamo]

Interesting. comments, but I didn’t watch.
thinking about my friends and neighbors and every one with a truck, regarless of size uses it as a truck. Must be a Paradise thing. Interesting conversation involving my friend who just got his Silverado Trailboss EV. A non truck owner remarked it was getting dirty. Owner remarked, “It’s a truck, supposed to be dirty” what the non owner didn’t know what there were several lengths Sch 40, 4” galvanized pipe in the bed. He also just bought a 7x14 dump trailer to pull behind it.

 

[GaRailroader]

His video that mentioned Slate probably got a lot more views than the run of the mill Tesla video he puts out. Look at Jay Leno's Slate video. 3.1 million views. Nothing particular remarkable about the video but it is Jay's most popular video in the last year. Why is that? I dunno, maybe there is a lot more interest in this truck then a lot of these naysayers realize.

My prediction is that Slate will be the #4 best selling EV in US in 2027 and move up to #3 in 2028. 2027 will be Tesla Model Y, Rivian R2 then Tesla Model 3. In 2028, Slate will pass Tesla Model 3.

 

[Doctors Do Little]

His video that mentioned Slate probably got a lot more views than the run of the mill Tesla video he puts out. Look at Jay Leno's Slate video. 3.1 million views. Nothing particular remarkable about the video but it is Jay's most popular video in the last year. Why is that? I dunno, maybe there is a lot more interest in this truck then a lot of these naysayers realize.

My prediction is that Slate will be the #4 best selling EV in US in 2027 and move up to #3 in 2028. 2027 will be Tesla Model Y, Rivian R2 then Tesla Model 3. In 2028, Slate will pass Tesla Model 3.

Love your optimism

 

[RevMS]

This will be my first new (from the OEM) car since 2002 when I bought a VW Jetta TDI. It also had crank up windows and a 5 speed ... no options ... a stripper if you will. I've bought four used cars in the meantime. I'm glad to have the option to get a new vehicle as a stripper these days.