The small truck market point that's brought up.

[Sparkie]

...I can see myself not owning a car inside the decade. As long as a safe ride (human or robot) picks me up with a mouse click, why would I want to toss $10,000+ a year into the air ...

Yeah, I've had similar thoughts, but at a period of 2 decades.
By that time, even "mouse clicks" might be outdated tech.

 

[Driven5]

By that time, even "mouse clicks" might be outdated tech.

It already is.

 

[jonboy108]

It's kind of a thing for me. I've been driving electric for 11 years now, (wife has a 2015 Tesla S, bought new and I have a 2020 Y bought new). When I was in the market, I looked at the new small vans, Ford Transit Connect, etc., but didn't want to go back to gasoline. The imminent arrival of the VW buzz had me all a twitter, having owned a 1970 bus and an 83 Westfalia vanagon. but it came it too speedy, not enough range, and when I saw one in person I thought it was just an awfully big girl. One of my favorite vehicles was a Chevy LUV. If one goes out of the USA, every other country has their pick of smaller, city friendly vehicles. Even the Toyota Hilux, where we only get the Tacoma- a bit bigger. I'm pretty much licking my chops over a Slate SUV to replace my Y.

 

[fuzzyweis]

One thing of note, at max capacity the Slate factory can only build 140-150k trucks a year. Which funnily enough is how many reservations they have.

Now I'm sure they'd love to be that successful but don't think that's what they plan for the first few years. Assuming that's running 3 shifts, maybe half of that capacity its what they are staffing for, maybe even a third of that capacity. All speculation but if they're only shooting for 40-50k trucks a year, I think if they get a good balance of fleet and retail customers they'll make that easy.

Again I'll reference the Maverick as it's the closest thing we got right now(mid-20s smallish truck). They sold 150k Mavericks last year, 20% of those went to fleets so 30k most likely base trucks for fleets. If Slate even does half that in fleet sales, and another 25k to retail, I think that'd be a winner winner chicken dinner. Especially without using dealers that add on scarcity fees.

Rivian aimed for only 20k trucks their first year, they didn't come close to that but that was their aim. Hopefully Slate isn't going to aim that low, and their simpler process and blank Slates only rolling off the line don't run into many issues, but I don't think they're looking to flood the market either, there'll probably be a waiting list like the initial Maverick, which will be good publicity, "people waiting months for their Slate!" vs "Slates are sitting at the factory unsold."

-Jim

 

[Paul]

The price of gas will drop back down to $3 in a few weeks; it's a short-lived price spike. I doubt it will move the EV market much. My opinion.

Well you have a country twice the size of Iraq with could be up to 80,000 drones stockpiled and easily deployable and stored from any pickup, truck or house and It takes $1 or 2 million for us to shoot one down before it hits something up to 2000 km away, with a patriot missile. It's situated in a choke point that controls 20% of the oil energy of the world. You have a new regime in charge that's about the same as the last one and we maintained a presence in Iraq for about 9 years of all out war.... High energy prices will probably push us into a recession by summer. Sooo A few weeks would be pretty optimistic. Just my opinion.

 

[slate808]

Currently drive a 2003 Tacoma single cab 4wd and I’m down for the Basic Slate long range. I signed on for a few accessories but my wish list includes all wheel drive. I know of a few other guys like me. There’s definitely a retail market for the Slate here in the islands. Even with Slate saying sales in continental US only, I’m already planning to fly up, get my Slate and ship it here myself.

 

[sodamo]

Currently drive a 2003 Tacoma single cab 4wd and I’m down for the Basic Slate long range. I signed on for a few accessories but my wish list includes all wheel drive. I know of a few other guys like me. There’s definitely a retail market for the Slate here in the islands. Even with Slate saying sales in continental US only, I’m already planning to fly up, get my Slate and ship it here myself.

Yup, makes 2 of us. Already told Slate that was my plan. On Big Island, you?

 

[slate808]

Part time Big Island, part time Oahu.

 

[bartflossom]

What an good thread! Lot's of interesting theories.

My 2 cents: When the Maverick hit the market the first thing that happened was Ford was caught off guard with the demand. And was caught off guard AGAIN by the demand for the hybrid. Dealers immediately started adding "market adjustments" and you couldn't get an XL hybrid without at least a 2000 dollar add on, plus all the protection package, pinstripe, window tint, undercoating, and overprice crap that the dealer could think of. Then on top of that Ford started raising the prices. It wasn't until spring of 2024 that you could finally find a few dealers willing to sell for sticker, which is when I bought a Maverick hybrid because I gave up waiting for a small EV pickup and figured a half-ev was as good as it was going to get.

It's nice to drive and 42 MPH is great in town. Gets 32-36 on the interstate depending on whether you have a front wind or tail wind but still great for a pickup. That said, it's too damn long and barely fits in my garage. Plus it still isn't what I wanted, the Slate is.

I'm thinking the 30K Ford will be like the Maverick and be impossible to get at anything near 30K for at least a year, longer if it is really popular. I think most people interested in it will go to look at one and be turned off by the f*#%ing dealer "experience" and wind up giving the Slate a hard look.

Could sell even more Slates. Here's hoping.