Used Slates market?

[TPL]

What are peoples' predictions about the used market? Assuming Slate as a company survives and doesn't turn into a Fisker type situation.

One debate I have is, buy right away or wait 3-5 years and hope to find one for $15k or less.

 

[GaRailroader]

It’s possible. I saw more depreciation than that on a 2022 Nissan Leaf that I drove for 4 years. The Nissan Leaf was not a very compelling vehicle and I think Federal Tax credits accelerated depreciation. I think the Slate is very compelling and so I am hopeful it depreciates more slowly than that. It also depends on how Slate’s new price changes over time. If new ones get more expensive then the used depreciation will be less.

 

[KevinRS]

Considering the used market for working condition small pickups, depreciation may be slow. Lots of use cases for lots of independent businesses

 

[ScooterAsheville]

The future is inherently unknowable. Demand for the Slate is also unknowable, beyond the first day's 10,000+ orders (at least until Slate reveals updated preorder numbers). And even then, a preorder is not an actual sale.

Maybe Slate is the second coming of the Maverick - people literally waiting for three years to get their truck, and a half million sold in an eyeblink. Maybe not. Maybe Slate is a hit with fleets. Or maybe not. Maybe Slate is in business in 2030. And maybe not. Maybe in three years China is building a small BEV pickup in the USA and selling it for $15,000. Maybe not.

So used value of a base Slate in a few years? Pull a number out of the hat. Throw a dart at the dartboard while you're wearing a mask. You have a decent chance of being correct.

But when somebody on this forum tries to tell you that they have a crystal ball that proves their preferred narrative is the right one... Do a Monty Python: Run away!


https://www.facebook.com/thejohncleese/videos/the-monty-python-rabbit-scene-/878626354395496/

 

[Medicfrost]

used Mavericks were going for higher than new (retail price, not dealer mark up price) for years after their debut.

 

[AZFox]

Ability to re-configure will help.

Propensity to show Visible Wear And Tear (shark battle scars) will not help.

 

[TPL]

If we speculate logically, why do people sell vehicles after a small number of years? Maybe they are early adopters and there's another new shiny thing on the horizon; this could apply to Slate. Maybe they got a lemon. Maybe their needs suddenly change. Maybe they don't like it after all. Those three might not be as applicable to Slate, but the number will be nonzero.

If the 2029 model year Slate is that much better (AWD and longer range?) that seems like the most likely scenario for entry generation Slates to hit the used market in larger quantities.

Bottom line though is that with only a few thousand existing at all, at first, it'll likely be a while before there's a $15k used Slate.

 

[TPL]

used Mavericks were going for higher than new (retail price, not dealer mark up price) for years after their debut.

This is true, but we were also in a post covid price spike during that time. In 2022 I sold my 2018 RAV4 for almost as much as I originally paid for it.

Ability to re-configure will help.

Propensity to show Visible Wear And Tear (shark battle scars) will not help.

I love the idea of "battle scars" on my vehicles. If done in a way that doesn't compromise the vehicle (such as ignoring rust) to me it says "not pretentious." E.g. when I hit a deer, instead of paying thousands of dollars for a replacement fender and paint, I had them hammer out the dented one and I drove it like that for another few years.

 

[AZFox]

I love the idea of "battle scars" on my vehicles. If done in a way that doesn't compromise the vehicle (such as ignoring rust) to me it says "not pretentious." E.g. when I hit a deer, instead of paying thousands of dollars for a replacement fender and paint, I had them hammer out the dented one and I drove it like that for another few years.

I was put off by the idea of Visible Battle Scars at first, but have embraced the idea of having some patina develop over time.

That said, previous-owner patina might not be as appealing...

 

[DT444T]

I, for one, can't wait for someone's one-year-old truck to come up for sale that I can buy cash.

 

[atx_ev]

pretty much all EVs depreciate very fast. 30-40% after two years. So a 25K slate will probably be 15K

People comparing new slates to used f150 lightnings or whatever are ridiculous. Compare the used slate to the used lightning.

The new slate isnt that cheap, but a 2 year old one will be.

 

[KevinRS]

pretty much all EVs depreciate very fast. 30-40% after two years. So a 25K slate will probably be 15K

People comparing new slates to used f150 lightnings or whatever are ridiculous. Compare the used slate to the used lightning.

The new slate isnt that cheap, but a 2 year old one will be.

It depends, it seems the used market for smaller trucks, 2 doors sized similar to Slate is tight, there isn't much available, and they get bought quick. For one all the people doing things like landscaping and other jobs that don't need heavy equipment and thousands of pounds of materials, with only 1-2 people on a crew, are on the lookout for those trucks.

 

[Doctors Do Little]

If we speculate logically, why do people sell vehicles after a small number of years? Maybe they are early adopters and there's another new shiny thing on the horizon; this could apply to Slate. Maybe they got a lemon. Maybe their needs suddenly change. Maybe they don't like it after all. Those three might not be as applicable to Slate, but the number will be nonzero.

If the 2029 model year Slate is that much better (AWD and longer range?) that seems like the most likely scenario for entry generation Slates to hit the used market in larger quantities.

Bottom line though is that with only a few thousand existing at all, at first, it'll likely be a while before there's a $15k used Slate.

Early adopter bias - agreed. Who’s to say that when the Scout Terra finally hits the market that I wouldn’t want to go that way, for example? Would I trade my Slate, sell it, keep it for a kid, or Turo the heck out of it?

I hope I love the damned thing.

 

[KevinM]

It depends, it seems the used market for smaller trucks, 2 doors sized similar to Slate is tight, there isn't much available, and they get bought quick. For one all the people doing things like landscaping and other jobs that don't need heavy equipment and thousands of pounds of materials, with only 1-2 people on a crew, are on the lookout for those trucks.

I think your scenario is the most likely. There really is a big unmet demand for trucks that are cheap, easy to maintain, and reliable. The people that buy them are not trying to impress their friends and neighbors, they really need or want a truck. If they are able to charge at home, an EV will be a real plus compared to a gas powered truck.

 

[stEVe]

I don’t sell or trade in vehicles. I’ll drive my Slate until the wheels fall off, then park it in the shed and tell my grandson, “It ran when I parked it.”