When will I get my Slate?

[Neil Nelson]

Slate will start delivering trucks in the fourth quarter of 2026. Slate will produce around 150,000 trucks per year. I put my order in on May 24, just over a month of Slate taking orders. Taking the reservation list on this site as a rough sample, I figure roughly that 125,000 orders have been submitted and I am on the reservation list at around 114,000.

Given that the $7,500 discount will not apply when Slate begins to sell I expect that around 1/4 of the current reservations will not be taken. That means there are only 93,750 good orders putting me at around 85,500 in the order list. I would receive my Slate truck roughly around the second quarter of 2027, just under two years away. That is going to be a long wait.

 

[Dorbiman]

Honestly I doubt even a fraction of the reservations will convert into sales. It was the same with the Cybertruck, though admittedly that was likely due to the massive price increase.

It's really easy to put down $50. It's a bit harder to put down $25,000

 

[Lanthian]

I like the quick math here, but yeah I think most of the reservations will be dropped when it comes time to make the final decision. My reservation was on 5/17. Pretty excited for it, but I still expect a good long wait.

 

[brian10x]

I like the quick math here, but yeah I think most of the reservations will be dropped when it comes time to make the final decision. My reservation was on 5/17. Pretty excited for it, but I still expect a good long wait.

Based on my calculations: 1 = cos2 (x) + sin2 (x) = (eix + e-ix )2 /4 + sin2 (x) = (e2ix + e-2ix )/4 + e2ln(sin(x)) + 1/2

You should get your truck 7.5 microseconds after I get mine. Give or take a few months.

 

[Letas]

Honestly I doubt even a fraction of the reservations will convert into sales. It was the same with the Cybertruck, though admittedly that was likely due to the massive price increase.

It's really easy to put down $50. It's a bit harder to put down $25,000

Yep, and even for the same reasons as the Cybertruck. The loss of the credit jacks the price on this by 30%.

Not great when the main selling point is the price.

I suspect many put $50 out of optimistic curiosity, but frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if under half converted when the time comes

 

[Neil Nelson]

Given that roughly half of the current reservations will not be used that puts me at position 57,000 or sometime toward the end of February 2027, noting that this is all very rough. I am now waiting for around 1 5/12 years. That is not so bad.

 

[brian10x]

Given that roughly half of the current reservations will not be used that puts me at position 57,000 or sometime toward the end of February 2027, noting that this is all very rough. I am now waiting for around 1 5/12 years. That is not so bad.

I think I will probably get delivery approx. 3.447 earth seconds (assuming vernal equinox) before you using the following formula:



If we format this so x2 - x = y, we get the quadratic: 1x2 - 1x - 1y = 0.

This goes into the quadratic formula as: (1 +- sqrt(1 - (4 * 1 * -1))) / 2.

This simplifies to (1 +- sqrt(5)) / 2.

 

[Letas]

Given that roughly half of the current reservations will not be used that puts me at position 57,000 or sometime toward the end of February 2027, noting that this is all very rough. I am now waiting for around 1 5/12 years. That is not so bad.

I mean, it’s anyone’s guess. Maybe 3/4 of reservations will convert. Maybe it’ll be 5%.

Commissioning will take a while for the factory. Anyone who has commissioned a factory know it doesn’t go to schedule. You’re guessing with like 6 unknown variables.

 

[brian10x]

I mean, it’s anyone’s guess. Maybe 3/4 of reservations will convert. Maybe it’ll be 5%.

Commissioning will take a while for the factory. Anyone who has commissioned a factory know it doesn’t go to schedule. You’re guessing with like 6 unknown variables.

7 unknown variables. We haven't accounted for the effects of the Ethiopian tariffs, which could vastly alter the timeline for delivery of vital famine-based neo-plastic connector graphic resembletdes. Depending , of course, on the gravitational pull of Venus.

 

[sodamo]

Yep, and even for the same reasons as the Cybertruck. The loss of the credit jacks the price on this by 30%.

Not great when the main selling point is the price.

I suspect many put $50 out of optimistic curiosity, but frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if under half converted when the time comes

The price hasn’t really changed, just who is paying for it -
Buyer with Tax $ = full price
Buyer only = full price

 

[Neil Nelson]

This is hard to read but it shows the number of reservations by the 88 days since the first entry at 4/18. Notice that the number of entries trails off the farther to the right. Of course there are fewer days for people to make a reservation to the right but that should not change the overall look of entries as more days are added in the future.

The point here is that to get to 150,000 in a year, and noting that this is a sample, the large number of reservations have happened in the first two weeks. It may be the case that the first two weeks were unusual, say, for the following time that could possibly show some more activity depending on circumstances, but we only have what we can see now.

The argument that only 5% of the reservations will convert does not seem likely in that Slate is gearing up for a 150,000 vehicle production giving 5% of the current reservation estimate of 125,000 or 6,250 vehicles for the first 88 days or around 26,000 for the year or around 1/6 of the what Slate is building for. 30% would be the low number.

 

[Letas]

The price hasn’t really changed, just who is paying for it -
Buyer with Tax $ = full price
Buyer only = full price

Yes…. Which will affect consumer decision making….

I don’t understand the repeated “well actually” rhetoric around that topic on this forum.

If I have to pay $7500 more for something than initially planned, I am less likely to buy it.

 

[sodamo]

Yes…. Which will affect consumer decision making….

I don’t understand the repeated “well actually” rhetoric around that topic on this forum.

If I have to pay $7500 more for something than initially planned, I am less likely to buy it.

Very true
but what I don’t get is the insincerity of people saying Slate changed the price when they didn’t. This is more akin to saying my parents aren’t going to kick in $ to help.
Having to pay more usually affects the decision of most of us. Likely feels different if doesn’t, but not my life.

 

[Letas]

Very true
but what I don’t get is the insincerity of people saying Slate changed the price when they didn’t. This is more akin to saying my parents aren’t going to kick in $ to help.
Having to pay more usually affects the decision of most of us. Likely feels different if doesn’t, but not my life.

Slate was smart… never release exact price so we can say it was never changed. Even 27499 and they’re still technically right

Yeah- the lack of the credit won’t affect some decisions, but over 100k+ orders it will undoubtedly lower the purchase percentage

 

[sodamo]

Slate was smart… never release exact price so we can say it was never changed. Even 27499 and they’re still technically right

Yeah- the lack of the credit won’t affect some decisions, but over 100k+ orders it will undoubtedly lower the purchase percentage

True again, but I’m guessing there never would have been even 90% conversion even if tax credit had doubled.