Slate contingency/exit plan

[SynphulGryph]

There's one particular marketing strategy I've seen Slate put forward that's been sticking out in my mind. That's where someone buys a Slate truck when they're young, find a partner, start a family, have a child, and pass the vehicle down to them. A potent strategy, which puts forward the idea that these trucks could last 20-30 years or more. Which brings up the distinct possibility that the trucks Slate manufactures could outlast the company they've built, especially when EV upstarts can be so volatile.

So, my question is this. What is Slate's contingency/exit plan? Say for example, of the 150,000 reservations currently placed (At least last I've heard, don't have the latest numbers), only a small fraction convert to sales? There could be unforeseen problems early in production which disrupt faith and trust in Slate, or the relatively low risk nature of the reservations means more people purchased them on impulse than would be willing to spend 25k on a vehicle. Say only 2000 or 3000 actual vehicles sell, and Slate needs to close up production early. How are those 2000 or 3000 vehicles going to be supported? Will they be supported? I know there's going to be decentralized support for different 3D printed parts, but what about what can't be 3D printed? Brakes, axles, motors, batteries, etc? What of the extensive accessory catalogue? Many I'd presume would be buying a Blank Slate with an eye to add things later, 2, 3, 5, 10 years down the road, likely more. If Slate needs to close its doors on production, how many of these accessories would still be produced?

I ask this not to try and undermine Slate, I'm genuinely excited for their ideas and the ethos they've put forward. Right to repair, right to customize, encouraging DIY and even 3D printing, the right to truly own your vehicle. I ask this because of how volatile EV startups can be, in conjunction with this ethos Slate is putting forward. I want to love this truck, but I also need to trust Slate is going to support it long term, even if things go in a bad direction.

Also, for the inevitable "it's not feasible to support a vehicle after production closes" mindset, I'd like to remind everyone of Pacific trucks. Their last truck was built in 1991, and they're still working with customers to this day to help them find parts and keep their trucks on the road as long as possible. So it's very possible, if the company is truly committed to supporting their customers.

 

[beatle]

I wouldn't hold your breath for support if the company folds. If they flounder but have valuable IP in the design that another company could use, and they buy Slate, they typically assume their liabilities. But even that's not a guarantee you'll be able to fix it out of warranty. GM bought Daewoo and that brand became an orphan. Similar "Saab" story, though the Swedish government actually backed a company to sell parts for Saabs.

Hopefully they last longer than Fisker. They went bankrupt in no time and nobody bought them, so vehicles plummeted in value, and fixing them is a real mission. With Slate being simpler and encouraging Right-to-Repair, hopefully people can keep them running longer even if they do fold.

 

[ElectricShitbox]

This is without a doubt, my number one concern.
I have a Chevy Spark EV, one of about 7400 built. The parts that overlap with the ICE Spark are available, but basically nothing else. I have a spotless rust free car with 70k miles, and it would cost $13k plus to replace my half-working battery to make it really usable again. There's suspension components that are straight up irreplaceable. I can't even replace the crumbling key fobs. Again, this is from GM, who sold like 3 million vehicles last year.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

This is without a doubt, my number one concern.
I have a Chevy Spark EV, one of about 7400 built. The parts that overlap with the ICE Spark are available, but basically nothing else. I have a spotless rust free car with 70k miles, and it would cost $13k plus to replace my half-working battery to make it really usable again. There's suspension components that are straight up irreplaceable. I can't even replace the crumbling key fobs. Again, this is from GM, who sold like 3 million vehicles last year.

Is this what you’re talking about?

2014-2016 Chevrolet Spark EV Battery Pack Replacement, 36 month warranty $12,500.00

 

[ElectricShitbox]

Is this what you’re talking about?

2014-2016 Chevrolet Spark EV Battery Pack Replacement, 36 month warranty $12,500.00

That's the one. Price of a pretty good Bolt, lol.

 

[John Santa Fe]

There's one particular marketing strategy I've seen Slate put forward that's been sticking out in my mind. That's where someone buys a Slate truck when they're young, find a partner, start a family, have a child, and pass the vehicle down to them. A potent strategy, which puts forward the idea that these trucks could last 20-30 years or more. Which brings up the distinct possibility that the trucks Slate manufactures could outlast the company they've built, especially when EV upstarts can be so volatile.

So, my question is this. What is Slate's contingency/exit plan? Say for example, of the 150,000 reservations currently placed (At least last I've heard, don't have the latest numbers), only a small fraction convert to sales? There could be unforeseen problems early in production which disrupt faith and trust in Slate, or the relatively low risk nature of the reservations means more people purchased them on impulse than would be willing to spend 25k on a vehicle. Say only 2000 or 3000 actual vehicles sell, and Slate needs to close up production early. How are those 2000 or 3000 vehicles going to be supported? Will they be supported? I know there's going to be decentralized support for different 3D printed parts, but what about what can't be 3D printed? Brakes, axles, motors, batteries, etc? What of the extensive accessory catalogue? Many I'd presume would be buying a Blank Slate with an eye to add things later, 2, 3, 5, 10 years down the road, likely more. If Slate needs to close its doors on production, how many of these accessories would still be produced?

I ask this not to try and undermine Slate, I'm genuinely excited for their ideas and the ethos they've put forward. Right to repair, right to customize, encouraging DIY and even 3D printing, the right to truly own your vehicle. I ask this because of how volatile EV startups can be, in conjunction with this ethos Slate is putting forward. I want to love this truck, but I also need to trust Slate is going to support it long term, even if things go in a bad direction.

Also, for the inevitable "it's not feasible to support a vehicle after production closes" mindset, I'd like to remind everyone of Pacific trucks. Their last truck was built in 1991, and they're still working with customers to this day to help them find parts and keep their trucks on the road as long as possible. So it's very possible, if the company is truly committed to supporting their customers.

Early Slate buyers are either enthusiasts for a low cost low sophisticated vehicle or it just meets their budgetary needs. For the former they are aware of the risks and likely can absorb the loss of $30K. Won't be happy, but not catastrophic. For the latter, they are screwed.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

That's the one. Price of a pretty good Bolt, lol.

60 mile range? How's that working for you? I'm curious to know how short-range EVs hold up in everyday use.

 

[ElectricShitbox]

60 mile range? How's that working for you? I'm curious to know how short-range EVs hold up in everyday use.

It was rated for 82 when new, but 60 is the realistic number, which was perfectly usable for my ~30 mile daily commute. It was never my only vehicle, and because it has CCS that works with ***some*** chargers, you can take it further as long as you're not in a hurry.

But once it started developing weak cells, I was struggling to stretch it to 30 miles as it got colder, so it's parked for the winter.

 

[RetiredOnPaper]

If the worst happens, my plan. I know enough about auto mechanics to keep the hardware running. I know enough electronics to take care of that end. The short of it, you have a collector on your hands. Taking care of this will be easy compared to a '59 Austin Healey "Bug Eyed" Sprite or a '69 AMC Rebel. (The Rebel was kind enough to donate it's push button AM radio to my Slate project.)

 

[Orley]

So, I read somewhere(?) that Slate is being built w off the shelf parts. I wonder how many and which parts are custom only to Slate? If Slate goes belly-up what will be irreplaceable? All the body parts will be gone but what else? If the warranty goes away what can't be repaired by somebody else?

 

[ElectricShitbox]

If the worst happens, my plan. I know enough about auto mechanics to keep the hardware running. I know enough electronics to take care of that end. The short of it, you have a collector on your hands. Taking care of this will be easy compared to a '59 Austin Healey "Bug Eyed" Sprite or a '69 AMC Rebel. (The Rebel was kind enough to donate it's push button AM radio to my Slate project.)

The simplicity makes the idea of maintaining it long term way easier, especially if a lot of the parts (I'm thinking of things like wheel bearings, ball joints etc) are off the shelf components used in other vehicles. The motor is from outside company that supplies other manufacturers, so it should be serviceable even without slate. The battery pack being large and rectangular means stuffing new modules in should be easier to figure out.
Even if slate sold like 100 units and then folded, and no one could crack the software, a dedicated weirdo could stuff the drivetrain from another vehicle in.

 

[cadblu]

In the unfortunate event that Slate Auto would fold, one of the biggest problems would be that OTA would stop immediately. Not terrible if your truck is already running ok, but no new features or improvements would be possible. RepairPal would still likely honor the basic vehicle warranty, but parts availability would be a major concern, as with the battery pack repair / replacement.

These are the inherent risks of being an early adopter and dealing with a startup company in a very tough market. From my take, Slate auto is on track to be successful. If they need an infusion of cash to stay solvent, there are some options on the table. They can approach the Bezos investment team for additional financial backing. The assets can be acquired by another OEM who will continue to sell under the Slate brandmark. They can also consider an IPO and become a publicly traded company (less likely).

Worst case scenario, production stops after building a few thousand vehicles. If you are one of the unlucky owners, then consider it's an expensive lesson in risk management.

 

[Doctors Do Little]

In the unfortunate event that Slate Auto would fold, one of the biggest problems would be that OTA would stop immediately. Not terrible if your truck is already running ok, but no new features or improvements would be possible. RepairPal would still likely honor the basic vehicle warranty, but parts availability would be a major concern, as with the battery pack repair / replacement.

These are the inherent risks of being an early adopter and dealing with a startup company in a very tough market. From my take, Slate auto is on track to be successful. If they need an infusion of cash to stay solvent, there are some options on the table. They can approach the Bezos investment team for additional financial backing. The assets can be acquired by another OEM who will continue to sell under the Slate brandmark. They can also consider an IPO and become a publicly traded company (less likely).

Worst case scenario, production stops after building a few thousand vehicles. If you are one of the unlucky owners, then consider it's an expensive lesson in risk management.

I would love to hear about a large commercial order that would help ensure intermediate success. Like a last-mile delivery service, or USPS carrier contract, etc. That would make the consumer market happier and they could slate away!

 

[ScooterAsheville]

OP, you voice a very common worry. The most honest answer is from Yoda: "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future".

So you really kind of have to do a possible futures analysis with almost no data. Pick multiple scenarios and model how each might unfold. In the military war colleges, they do this all the time - war gaming. The thing about war gaming is that it only goes so far. You don't know how a war is going to go until it happens. Just like the football quote, "any given Sunday"...

So if we hope for the best but plan for the worst... We're planning for Slate to collapse sometime after first delivery, and you took an early delivery. I hate to be Debbie Downer, but auto industry history shows us this is the most likely scenario. The valley of death is real, and especially real in auto - because you have to massively scale, and you have to attract massive capital, and margins are typically razor thin. Rivian has had billions in captial and has still not made a penny in profit. Tesla probably would have folded without BEV subsidies and EPA credits in the billions.

OK, so Slate fails. You have a Slate truck. Let's think it through...

• Resale value approaches zero overnight (I'm not making that up, go check values of recent failed auto startups). But who cares, because you're gonna drive it till it falls apart.
• Slate, tbh, does not have anything anyone in the auto industry wants. It's all off the shelf. So in the bankruptcy, it's assets (mainly the assembly machinery) are sold off for pennies on the dollar. Nobody out there is stupid enough to buy the Slate brand or intellectual assets - because there is nothing of value.
• Say you have to fix a body part after a collision. Well, you have junkyards. And maybe somebody on EBay bought up any Slate parts inventory, so there's that. As for 3d printing, well, how big of a 3d printer do you have access too, and what materials can it use?
• A mouse chews through the wiring harness (happened to me last month). Well, again junkyard (very labor intensive) or somebody bought up harnesses.
• A word on parts. People seem to think there are warehouses full of parts. Nope, all OEMs do just in time parts delivery for manufacturing. So there are a handful of parts.
• Software. Maybe they open source it. I dunno. But Slate is a last century architecture, with individual controllers, each with software owned by that supplier. So you don't have access to those. And buying a part from that supplier may not help, because the software inside it may be incompatible with the other controllers or any Slate software. So you're basically screwed. Pray for open source. Pray some software engineer that speaks that language has a Slate. Or you have an AI that can maintain it.
• Random motors and industry standar parts. This is the best bit. If it's all off the shelf with no Slate modifications, you're good as gold. As long as any software on that part still works with your Slates other parts and pieces (everything on the truck that is electric has software).

I could go on, but you get my drift. An orphaned Slate is awesome for adventurous tinkerers. And some of those tinkerers could set up a Slate repair shop. This has happened before with other orpahns. I mean, you can still buy bodies and engines for classic cars. There just has to be an enthusiast body of adequate size.

As for the Slate lasting forever, why would you want that? The Slate is already a dinosaur. The motors suck. The battery sucks. They're not even remotely competitive in 2026, let alone 2030. Heck, I would not be surprised to see current flammable lithium ion batteries banned worldwide come maybe 2035 - just for the fire risk. Or insurance companies refusing to insure them. Or charging an extra hazard premium. Why would you want to park a Slate in your garage in 2035 when it could catch fire and burn your house down - when by then you can purchase a cheap solid state, fireproof BEV.

Man I hated writing all that. I feel like I smashed some child's birthday present. But somebody on this forum has to keep the narratives grounded in reality.

Let's all hope Slate is a smashing success. Because if there are hundreds of thousands of Slates on the road, then maintence is not a worry. And everything I said above will be absolutely irrelevent.

Personally, I'm on the sidelines cheering for Slate to succeed and be a smashing business success. Because I love small trucks. I love BEVs. I love the Slate mission of bringing affordable, simple, basic, built in America with American parts small trucks to us all. Go Slate!

That said, I cancelled my reservation to watch from a distance. I might buy a used Slate if they make it, but I'll wait at least a year. I want to see them sell 100,000 first. Then maybe I'll pounce on one as a local runabout.

 

[clofan]

Good thread and replies, thanks for posting. It is a risk, and as Scooter said, the most likely scenario given historical data. I hope it goes the other way, I think people are ready for a less complicated and more reliable vehicle and Slate really finds their niche.