Used EV Wave Incoming. Anyone Else Watching This?

[SlateModGarage]

One concern I have is the potential glut of EVs coming off lease and flooding back into the market over the next couple of years. From what I am seeing, this could drive used EV prices down quite a bit.

The numbers are not small.

Industry data shows roughly 123,000 EVs are expected to come off lease in 2025, but that jumps dramatically to around 300,000 to 330,000 in 2026, and could reach about 650,000 by 2027.

Put another way, analysts estimate nearly 1 million leased EVs from the 2022 to 2025 boom will be feeding the used market by 2027.

This surge is largely locked in because leasing spiked hard during 2022 and 2023 when incentives made EV leases very attractive.

If that supply wave hits as expected, we may start seeing some pretty compelling, well equipped EVs available used for close to the same price range as the truck I am interested in. We are already seeing signs of price pressure, with used EV values in many cases running below earlier expectations.

I really like the concept and purpose behind this truck, and I want it to succeed. I just think the incoming wave of off lease EVs is something worth keeping an eye on from a value perspective.

Curious if anyone else is thinking about this.
If this already talked about I am sorry.

 

[sodamo]

There are NO small EV TRUCKS coming off lease. Those that might be interested were not primarily interested that Slate is a small EV truck. Mostly likely they just want a cheap EV.

 

[beatle]

It's a good datapoint for someone who is cross shopping small, inexpensive EVs of any body type. Not everyone is though.

I love the Slate, but I'm also thinking of going back to a "split fleet" with a Ridgeline for long trips /hauling and a small EV for commuting - likely a Mini Cooper SE. Speaking of EV leases, my Rivian lease is up in June of 2027 to add to the tidal wave, so a CPO 2024 Cooper SE will be in the mix for me.

 

[fuzzyweis]

Our Honda Prologue will be going off lease in early 2028, and we will not be buying it out, as we're already seeing used ones 1 year in for less than our buyout in 2 years.

As for the plan at that time, It's just my wife and I, we briefly(about 8 months) had only EV cars and a motorcycle, but my Bolt EV getting totaled last year accelerated my plan to get us down to just 2 cars, and still the motorcycle.

The 1st step of the plan is our Mitsubishi Plug-in, it can handle either of our commutes in complete EV mode, and let us drive from NC to CA without worrying about route planning based on charger stops.(the infrastructure is getting better but most people with an ICE car just drive until they need gas, pull over wherever and fill up.)

The 2nd step/car would best be a pure EV, ideally a little truck so we can still do house things, and make my daily commute, my work has free EV charging. The Ranger meets most of those criteria but with 50 miles of range in mild weather, and 25 years on the clock, it's not ideal.

So a Slate would fit good, potentially so would Ford's $30k EV in a couple years, or even a Telo if we wanna get nuts, but the blank Slate is targeting a price around what our Prologue's off lease buyout will be, my wife even dropped a "wow" when I told her they were targeting around $25k new when we went to see one at the local event. Which is also what we got our Mitsubishi for used.

Now compared to our Honda or Mitsubishi, there's no infotainment, no 360 degree camera view or folding mirrors or even heated seats, but it has cruise control and backup camera, a frunk, preconditioning, driver assist, power locks, and can have power windows, and I can put whatever cd-holding apple carplaying mounted-on-the-fender-antenna stereo I want in it, so there's that.

-Jim

 

[ScooterAsheville]

Not only is there a wave of affordabl, high quality BEVs coming onto the used market at half or less original MSRP. There is also a wave of brilliant new electric vehicles arriving in the next 12 to 24 months.

Slate will sink or swim on price, price, and price. So they better get the price right. You have to believe the Slate CEO has pricing nightmares at 3 AM.

 

[zipn]

Ageed with the original post.

We just picked up a 2024 Hyundai Ioniq 6 sedan, limited (loaded top-of-the-line) version, with AWD, 2 motors and ~ 300 miles of range for 1/2 of the MSRP. Original sticker as $56K, we paid $28K. It's a certified pre-owend by Hyundai and it only had 7,000 miles on it. Still has about 9 years left on the powertrain warranty and ~ 4 years left on the bumper-to-bumper. (It also had the dreaded Hyundai ICCU recall done - so no worries about that)

We already have a Maverick so no need for another pickup. I originally was going to get a SLATE as our low-cost EV around-town car. Hyundai is now in the garage instead.

 

[LoneWolfo6]

One concern I have is the potential glut of EVs coming off lease and flooding back into the market over the next couple of years. From what I am seeing, this could drive used EV prices down quite a bit..

Isn’t it AWESOME!

Right now you can buy a used Duel Motor Model Y for $22k-$25k.

Two years ago the same old Model Y was selling used for $72k-$90k.

Tesla Model Y and Model X lost over 60% value in three years used, so what does Tesla do to correct that, Cancel the two models?!

Flood the market!

 

[jmcarter]

I love the Slate, but I'm also thinking of going back to a "split fleet" with a Ridgeline for long trips /hauling and a small EV for commuting - likely a Mini Cooper SE. Speaking of EV leases, my Rivian lease is up in June of 2027 to add to the tidal wave, so a CPO 2024 Cooper SE will be in the mix for me.

Used Cooper SE looks to be an attractive option if you can live with the pitiful range. Turned in my leased ID.4 two years ago and while my Maverick Hybrid ticks all the boxes a BEV is so compelling for local driving. A used BEV towing a small utility trailer occasionally is a solid option IMO

 

[ElectricShitbox]

Used Cooper SE looks to be an attractive option if you can live with the pitiful range. Turned in my leased ID.4 two years ago and while my Maverick Hybrid ticks all the boxes a BEV is so compelling for local driving. A used BEV towing a small utility trailer occasionally is a solid option IMO

I keep eyeing Mini Cooper SE prices. That car is basically everything I wanted the Spark EV to be, and used ones are popping up under $15k.

 

[PNWEng]

I'm considering other options to the Slate since I've come to realize that it could be 2 years or more before I can get my hands on one. I just recently put in a reservation so there are around 150,000 reservations ahead of me. A good deal on a used EV might be a good alternative.

 

[Letas]

Yep, totally agree. In the release for the Slate they said they are trying to compete with not just new cars, but used cars. The used EV market is very consumer-friendly now. It is easy to find low mile 1-2 year old cars for < 30k. Deals can be had as well at under 25k.

Sure, this doesn't apply to all purchasers, as some are form factor sensitive, but for many, the options are out there.

 

[Sparkie]

There are NO small EV TRUCKS coming off lease. Those that might be interested were not primarily interested that Slate is a small EV truck. Mostly likely they just want a cheap EV.

Yeah, I agree with you.
I wanted a simple truck and the bonus is that it's intentionally built for the DIY market.

Hmm...
🤔
I think I'm on the wrong forum.
When I look at the rest of the posts on this thread, it looks like the "looking for an insanely cheap EV" forum.

So, where did the "Slate EV Pickup Truck" get moved to?

 

[sodamo]

Yeah, I agree with you.
I wanted a simple truck and the bonus is that it's intentionally built for the DIY market.

Hmm...
🤔
I think I'm on the wrong forum.
When I look at the rest of the posts on this thread, it looks like the "looking for an insanely cheap EV" forum.

So, where did the "Slate EV Pickup Truck" get moved to?

Nah, this is the right place, they don’t have their own forum and apparently figured they could fake the small truck interest and noone would notice..

 

[KevinRS]

I am wondering, if maybe there will start to be changes to those lease buyout offers. If you can turn the car in and turn around and buy the same model in the same condition for less off the used lot, even at the same dealer, they might have to start sweetening the buyout deals even if only to save on all the processing, and get the off lease load down.
At the same time, all those people turning in leases have to buy something, most won't be going back to ICE, and multiple EV lines have been discontinued.

 

[sodamo]

Could come down to where is the tax advantage to dealership