Pre-ordering opens at 9:30 AM PT / 12:30 PM ET (June 24)

[blampart]

When do you think you'll get your slate? This is my thinking:

I assume/am afraid that the delivery windows will be very long to cover the unknowns for them and avoid delivering later than promised. The main variables will be monthly output and actual orders. I hope Slate will scale faster than other first timers, but not sure the first few months we will see monthly output being substantially more than 1-2k, before it then (hopefully ramps up to above 5k). Based on the delivery windows we will see this month, I assume we will see a range between 10-40% putting down the $300 of the 160k that reserved for $50. With these numbers I am expecting 2027 being fully occupied with pre-orders and delivery windows of 3-4months, so maybe 3 cohorts. The 10-40% is wide, but even that could be wrong. I'd expect Slate to have a way better handle on this on July 24, when they have the number of more committed potential buyers.

My question is how Slate will act if any of the variables change after they announce the delivery windows. E.g. what happens if their output is better or worse than planned by month. What if more or less people will order than they assumed. Both may then for folks at the front or end of a window/cohort mean that they will either get it later than promised or best case, even earlier.

So in my case, with a July '25 reservation, I expect an initial September '27 to December '27 window. Should they ramp faster or get disappointing order numbers, I am hopeful they pull me forward

 

[GrizzlysGhost]

When do you think you'll get your slate? This is my thinking:


So in my case, with a July '25 reservation, I expect an initial September to December window. Should they ramp faster or get disappointing order numbers, I am hopeful they pull me forward

Were I you, I'd temper my window expectations and push it to mid 2027; I fear there may be a lot of folks ahead of you in the queue (even with your fairly decent reservation date). This way, if you DO get an earlier window you can celebrate

 

[Kopsis]

So in my case, with a July '25 reservation, I expect an initial September to December window. Should they ramp faster or get disappointing order numbers, I am hopeful they pull me forward

I'm not assuming delivery windows will actually have dates attached. And even if they do, I'm sure the pre-order agreement will give Slate the right to adjust them. I suspect all we'll know with certainty is if we're in the first wave, second wave, etc.

 

[metroshot]

Being first on the list for $50 deposit to pre-order does not mean you will be first to get a delivery slot on 6/24.

I have seen many times reservations deposits with Ford and GM go wildly awkward.

Ford got my F150 Lightning order filled in 2022 as one of the very first batch and I was way late to the $100 deposit.

People on the Ford EV forum seems to think it was based on location (California) where credits for EV was greater.

With current changing EV credits manufacturers can use to buy/sell - it's going to be interesting how Slate will determine who gets first deliveries.

 

[KevinRS]

Being first on the list for $50 deposit to pre-order does not mean you will be first to get a delivery slot on 6/24.

I have seen many times reservations deposits with Ford and GM go wildly awkward.

Ford got my F150 Lightning order filled in 2022 as one of the very first batch and I was way late to the $100 deposit.

People on the Ford EV forum seems to think it was based on location (California) where credits for EV was greater.

With current changing EV credits manufacturers can use to buy/sell - it's going to be interesting how Slate will determine who gets first deliveries.

That would mean a push for CARB states getting early deliveries, except those carb credits have a range requirement that throws it all off for low range vehicles.

 

[GaRailroader]

That would mean a push for CARB states getting early deliveries, except those carb credits have a range requirement that throws it all off for low range vehicles.

What is the minimum range that is eligible? This doesn’t bode well for non-CA residents.

 

[danielt1263]

I recall someone asking and being told that they will be taking reservation order and location into account when determining delivery windows.
I expect that means California will get some of the first trucks because it has the most reservations (at least based on the data collected on this site.)

I agree with @blampart. I find it an interesting coincidence that they got about the same number of reservations as they expect the max annual capacity of the factory will be. And I agree with his/her estimate of how many reservations will convert to full orders. I'm thinking maybe 40-50% reservations convert to pre-orders and some of them will drop so that 30-40% reservations convert to full orders. So if the factory can ramp up to 30-40% capacity, the list will take the full year to burn through.

I'm hoping the people who reserved during the first weekend and in the three most populous states will get their truck on/before June '27.

That's an interesting comment from @Kopsis that our delivery windows may not actually include dates... Maybe they will just break everyone into something like five cohorts. I think if they did that, the conversion rate will be lower than it otherwise would.

 

[Kopsis]

I'm thinking maybe 40-50% reservations convert to pre-orders ...

I think that's really optimistic. Consider that most (if not all) conversions will have to be done without a test drive and maybe without even seeing the production version in person. We probably won't have answers to a lot of the deeper technical questions, EPA range test results, detailed service and repair info, etc. in that timeframe. And since the only downside of not converting a reservation is the loss of an early delivery window, I think conversion will be limited to those truly committed to the "vision" which is probably no more than 10% of reservations.

 

[cadblu]

Agreed. What I find even more intriguing is that Slate tallied up an astonishing 100,000 reservations in the first two weeks of the initial reveal. Fast forward 13 months, and then combined with all the internet buzz; Facebook groups; this excellent slateforums.com platform 👍; extensive media coverage, highly anticipated reviews by Motor Trend; Sandy Munro; and even Jay Leno, they have only managed to add some 60,000 additional reservations. I understand the initial meteoric response is not sustainable, but from a statistical viewpoint this is a pretty big cliff. While it’s still early in the life cycle, I‘m sure the demand curve will be studied closely by Slate as reservations begin conversion to preorders.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Agreed. What I find even more intriguing is that Slate tallied up an astonishing 100,000 reservations in the first two weeks of the initial reveal. Fast forward 13 months, and then combined with all the internet buzz, Facebook groups, this excellent slateforums.com 👍; extensive media coverage, highly anticipated reviews by Motor Trend, Sandy Munro, and even Jay Leno, they have only managed to add some 60,000 additional reservations. I understand the initial meteoric response is not sustainable, but from a statistical viewpoint this is a pretty big cliff. While it’s still early in the life cycle, I‘m sure the demand curve will be studied closely by Slate as reservations begin convert to preorders.

Price & Slates on the street will help.

 

[GrizzlysGhost]

I'm sure Slate has a distro plan already fleshed out, but I hope it's flexible enough to accommodate forecast errors. Like, if someone earlier in the queue takes a pass, I want their spot! 😂

 

[Kopsis]

I understand the initial meteoric response is not sustainable, but from a statistical viewpoint this is a pretty big cliff.

Publishing the numbers killed reservation demand. If the only thing a reservation gets you is a place in line and you know there are already 100k people ahead of you, jumping on the end of the queue isn't all that compelling.

 

[kvermeer]

Publishing the numbers killed reservation demand.

It probably helped a lot with convincing investors to give them seed capital though, which was more important at that stage of the startup.

 

[KevinRS]

What is the minimum range that is eligible? This doesn’t bode well for non-CA residents.

It is 200 mile range, any less than that and they only get partial credits. There is a list of states that use the CARB rules. Even without it, the size of the EV market in CA would mean some significant part of the first deliveries would go there, even just going by reservation order alone.

Publishing the numbers killed reservation demand. If the only thing a reservation gets you is a place in line and you know there are already 100k people ahead of you, jumping on the end of the queue isn't all that compelling.

I was thinking and I think commenting about that way back, after they publicized the first 100k, then stayed silent for a long time. If they made public big numbers, it would discourage people thinking they would be years longer getting a truck, if they show small numbers, then people figure the truck must not be something worth reserving. The 3rd option, silence, isn't that good either, because then "what are they hiding?"

 

[Kopsis]

It probably helped a lot with convincing investors to give them seed capital though, which was more important at that stage of the startup.

Yeah, not saying it was the wrong move - in fact that was probably the true purpose of the reservation scheme.