Do we think that Slate is understating their reservation volume?

[GaRailroader]

Remember in the first 2 weeks they reported having over 100k reservations. More recently they have said over 150k. It seems unbelievable to me that they only had 50k additional in the last 7 months when they had 100k in the 1st 2 weeks. If they reported they had 500k reservations then surely they would get the attention of other automakers.(Ford unveiled the skunk works project a few weeks after Slate had their unveiling) Its probably better for them to appeal to consumers but keep a low profile with respect to competitors.

When Tesla unveiled the Model 3, they had something like 462k reservations at $1000 a pop. $50 is the cheapest reservation price I have seen on any of these EV pick-ups. Canoo was $100 I think and Telo is $152. I think CT was $100 or $150.

 

[KevinRS]

I think another reason they wouldn't announce something like 500k reservations is that while they and others do know that they won't get 100% conversion, saying 500k would kill most future reservations, because potential customers would do the math and think they will be waiting 4 years.
I haven't seen info on what kind of conversion rates other auto makers have had on reservations.

 

[cadblu]

If I was an investor, I’d be more interested in a company with a large backlog of orders. The current 150k reservations represents only one year of full rate production. I don’t believe Slate is purposely downplaying the reservation count. At some point Slate will be seeking series c financing to fund additional capital equipment / automation/ robotics/ improvements to infrastructure to expand their facilities. Remember they are currently in a ~65 year old printing factory hastily converted into an automotive manufacturing plant. Private equity and venture capitalists like to see at least 2 years of backlog, with the understanding that not all reservations will convert into orders.

 

[ElectricShitbox]

I don't know if 150k is accurate, only Slate will know that. I wouldn't be that surprised that most of the reservations came right after announcing though. As for tesla's reported reservations of its various vehicles, I simply wouldn't trust any number they report.

 

[Kopsis]

It seems unbelievable to me that they only had 50k additional in the last 7 months

Totally believable. The initial media blitz caught the vast majority of people interested enough to make a reservation. Nothing really new has happened since that would prompt a new wave. Couple that with the loss of the tax credit likely leading to quite a few cancelled reservations and I'm actually surprised by the net 50k increase.

 

[bartflossom]

I think they've put their product in front of everyone researching EVs and cheap trucks, but that's a small percentage of people. Only one member of my family and none of my associates or friends have heard of the Slate when I bring it up. I'm inclined to believe Slate's numbers.

 

[Johnologue]

Most electric cars people have had the opportunity to "reserve" have been performance/luxury vehicles to some extent, like the Model 3.

The Slate is affordable/practical. I think the customers looking for that kind of vehicle are less likely to reserve something a year ahead of production.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

I think they have exactly what they say. There is zero, zero, zero business logic in understating reservations. Slate is in the middle of a Series C funding round, and any promising news they can deliver to potential investors improves that capital raise.

A more relevant question is how many of those theoretically fully-refundable fifty dollar reservations are serious? How can you even begin to answer that question when you don't have final product and pricing? And even then it's historically very likely that most reservations won't convert to orders (that's not me inventing a narrative - it's the demonstrated history of other OEM exercises in pre-sales reservations).

I go back to my main point that reservations were taken when there was a $7,500 tax credit. And the vast mojority of people see no harm in just keeping those cheap reservations in hand. I mean, these days, $50 is the cost of feeding the family at McDonalds.

You want to get serious, trustable information on how many reservations are real? Make them $500 and non-refundable. Until then, a reservation isn't to be taken even remotely seriously.

The Slate CEO said it herself. I can't remember her exact words, but in one interview she said they were being "realistic" about how many reservations would convert to orders.

 

[sage]

When Tesla unveiled the Model 3, they had something like 462k reservations at $1000 a pop.

The Slate is a much more niche vehicle than a Model 3. We shouldn’t be comparing the two, and shouldn’t expect the Slate to sell as well either.

As much as we all like the Slate and think it’s a great option in a market saturated with “too much”, the general public would not agree.

 

[ScooterAsheville]

We're all of us speculating based on our personal biases, fans and skeptics alike. The next 18 months will be the tell on who is right. 2026 will be the year (I hope) when we get actual facts concerning cost, production readiness, and series C funding.

But 2027 will be year that matters. That's the year everyone finds out who is and is not going to buy a Slate. Until we see the beef, it's just an attractive sesame seed bun with lettuce and tomato.

 

[Letas]

I think they have exactly what they say. There is zero, zero, zero business logic in understating reservations. Slate is in the middle of a Series C funding round, and any promising news they can deliver to potential investors improves that capital raise.

A more relevant question is how many of those theoretically fully-refundable fifty dollar reservations are serious? How can you even begin to answer that question when you don't have final product and pricing? And even then it's historically very likely that most reservations won't convert to orders (that's not me inventing a narrative - it's the demonstrated history of other OEM exercises in pre-sales reservations).

I go back to my main point that reservations were taken when there was a $7,500 tax credit. And the vast mojority of people see no harm in just keeping those cheap reservations in hand. I mean, these days, $50 is the cost of feeding the family at McDonalds.

You want to get serious, trustable information on how many reservations are real? Make them $500 and non-refundable. Until then, a reservation isn't to be taken even remotely seriously.

The Slate CEO said it herself. I can't remember her exact words, but in one interview she said they were being "realistic" about how many reservations would convert to orders.

Yep. No way Slate is just blatantly lying about their reservations. While they don’t have the same scrutiny as a publicly traded company, they still have legal obligations to report accurately.

If they did want a pulse check for how many reservations will convert, I thought they could release a “second wave” system to gauge how many will convert.
Maybe extra $500 for reservation holders, convertible to $1000 on accessories at purchase… or similar

 

[Whitesands]

Considering how much time passed between the two announcements, it's possible they lost some in Sept when the credits ended. This way they don't have to admit it dropped since it's still higher than it was in May.