When will Slate Auto ship their 500th vehicle? (Market research tool)

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According to “Manifold,” a social prediction tool, Slate will deliver its 500th unit in March 2028. This date takes into account delays in production and delivery which are inevitable even with established OEMs.
Link here: Manifold

While I don’t endorse this research tool, Manifold claims its forecasts are within 4 percentage points on average of the true probability. The largest percentage of votes is for 2027, so this isn’t consistent with the prediction. Nevertheless I wanted to share this for discussion.