When will Slate Auto ship their 500th vehicle? (Market research tool)

[cadblu]

According to “Manifold,” a social prediction tool, Slate will deliver its 500th unit in March 2028. This date takes into account delays in production and delivery which are inevitable even with established OEMs.
Link here: Manifold

While I don’t endorse this research tool, Manifold claims its forecasts are within 4 percentage points on average of the true probability. The largest percentage of votes is for 2027, so this isn’t consistent with the prediction. Nevertheless I wanted to share this for discussion.

 

[LoneWolfo6]

Time will tell. Too long to wait and a lot can happen between now and 2028

Cybertruck flop.

Atlas Truck EV bankruptcy.

Nokia Bankruptcy.

Canoo went from moving forward to bankruptcy.

RAM EV cancelled.

Ford Lightning cancelled.

 

[ElectricShitbox]

What are the Vegas odds, lol.
I very much want slate to succeed, but I'm still at 50/50 they ever deliver a vehicle.
I've had my heart broken by start-ups before, haha.

 

[E90400K]

I'm going with February 26th, 2027.

 

[SparkYellow]

But... They say "coming soon!" 🙆

 

[cadblu]

I guess waiting another 1.5 years is considered “soon” in the Slate ecosystem.

 

[Luxrage]

What are the Vegas odds, lol.
I very much want slate to succeed, but I'm still at 50/50 they ever deliver a vehicle.
I've had my heart broken by start-ups before, haha.

I watched a co-worker go through every stage of grief with Elio motors, I don't want to fall into that same trap!

 

[E90400K]

I watched a co-worker go through every stage of grief with Elio motors, I don't want to fall into that same trap!

Wait, we worked together in the past?

 

[E90400K]

What are the Vegas odds, lol.
I very much want slate to succeed, but I'm still at 50/50 they ever deliver a vehicle.
I've had my heart broken by start-ups before, haha.

I think they will make it to production, as it seems they have the private equity in place a year out from initial low-rate production. I am more concerned with sustainability at the price point they are trying to hit. I think they have good market potential with fleet sales for delivery services and trades/field services. I think the non-fleet sale market is going to be robust at first but will drop off after two or three model years. And I see difficulty with the business case to carry the SUV conversion kits years out after the release of the Gen 1 truck. It's a great idea but I'm not sure how they inventory will work and what impact to the future Gen 2 truck design will be.

Scout is the startup I really have concern with getting to production AND surviving.

 

[Letas]

I think they will make it to production, as it seems they have the private equity in place a year out from initial low-rate production. I am more concerned with sustainability at the price point they are trying to hit. I think they have good market potential with fleet sales for delivery services and trades/field services. I think the non-fleet sale market is going to be robust at first but will drop off after two or three model years. And I see difficulty with the business case to carry the SUV conversion kits years out after the release of the Gen 1 truck. It's a great idea but I'm not sure how they inventory will work and what impact to the future Gen 2 truck design will be.

Scout is the startup I really have concern with getting to production AND surviving.

Out of curiosity, why do you have that concern for Scout?

I have cautious concern for any EV startup surviving in the current climate, but just curious why your have that opinion!

 

[bartflossom]

Personally I think by that March 28 date they will be planning the expansion of the plant and looking for another deserted one to buy.

Bookmarking this page and marking the date on my google calendar to see how stupid or smart I wind up looking.

 

[E90400K]

Out of curiosity, why do you have that concern for Scout?

I have cautious concern for any EV startup surviving in the current climate, but just curious why your have that opinion!

It's an odd situation with Scout. Scout says it is an American startup auto manufacturer, yet Uncle Volkswagen seems to be footing the $2B+ bill to standup a brand-new factory. While VW has deep pockets I just wonder how much tolerance there is for finishing the project in light of the EV environment in the US. Last I heard VW is going to platform share the Scout with an Audi product.

Some inside baseball, earlier this year, VW got rid of the US-based 3rd-party project management team building the plant to save startup costs.